Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 291443 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
842 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE AND CORRECTION...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW LAYER OF HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT
BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS GATHERED UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS MOST CONCENTRATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER OUT
ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE MOMENT
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN WELD...MORGAN...
WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE BACK EDGE TO THIS
BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH
OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE
HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS.
AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITHIN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NERN
PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE/RE STILL
IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...IT MAY NOT FEEL
THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 5-10KT NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS IN AREAS EAST OF
I-25. THEN AROUND 17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN
THE DENVER AREA GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/
DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS
BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER


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