Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300312
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE STATE AS A DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER
WELD AND LOGAN COUNTIES...BUT THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOUD-FREE.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NECESSARY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PRESENT TIME
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS
SHOW THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
STREAMING SEWRD OVER NERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE
NOTHING MORE THAN OCCASIONAL STAR AND MOON OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE
THESE WISPY CLOUDS SHOULD SLIP EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS MORNING.
ON MONDAY...MAX HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFT EAST OVER ERN UTAH/WRN BY
MIDDAY WITH WEAKER NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN COLORADO. SFC WINDS
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER TOMORROW. MESOSCALE MODELS EVEN
INDICATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/ERLY AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY...HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME
HIGH-LEVEL WAVE CLOUD FORMATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH GENERALLY A
4-8 DEG F INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A 10-18 DEG F WARMUP ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 3115

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER COLORADO ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW RECORD HIGHS WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS
MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WAS REMAINS RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STORE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHERE THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER AND GFS
SLOWER AND DEEPER. WILL BROAD BRUSH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NOW BUT
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RAIN LOOKS TO CHANGE
TO SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING DESPITE TIMING ISSUES.

DRIER AND WARMER AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION TO GENTLE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS WEAK
LEE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...DANKERS


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