Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 232108
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
308 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WITH MAIN IMPACTS OF GUSTY WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING AS DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 20S. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROF...SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS INT THE MID AND UPPER 40S. RESULTANT SURFACE
BASED CAPES UP TO 1500J/KG MAY SPARK A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS/FOG ON THE FAR
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME QG ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING TO KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS AT LOW LEVELS. HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER QG ASCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CO/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITY TURNS DOWNWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
CUTOFF JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH OVER THE AREA WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PUSHING DOWN OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND AGAINST
THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO ABOUT
9000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHERE THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAS T ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO FOCUS MORE MOISTURE AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH TO
DRAW IN COOLER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
AROUND 7000 FEET. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL OVER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM TO SEE IF ANY HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE
NEEDED.

THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE COOL MONDAY WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST TO BEGIN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE THE GFS SHOWED FOR TUESDAY HAS NOW
TRENDED FURTHER EAST...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARM AND DRY TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS REPORTED AT APA/DEN. NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE CURRENT SHOWERS SO MAY BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE TS/WIND
GUSTS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO DRAINAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND LESSER CHANCES OF TS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.