Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 011013
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
413 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MUCH OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH
JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING WASHINGTON AND PARK COUNTIES.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS AROUND AT VARIOUS LEVELS AND IS NOT
WIDESPREAD OR UNIFORM. NO FOG BEING REPORTED YET BUT STILL EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG STILL TO DEVELOP OVER LOW LYING AREAS AS SOME
T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY 2-5 DEGREES.

COLORADO WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS DISTURBANCE WITH STILL SOME UPSTREAM
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE INCREASE IN PW
VALUES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH INCREASES OVER .40" OVER THE
FRONT RANGE WITH READINGS AROUND .75" FROM INTEGRATED PW FROM GPS.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
40S. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 800-1500J/KG.
THERE IS SOME INITIAL STABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS AROUND
750MB THIS AM WHICH MODELS EVENTUALLY ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY OVER FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AND PALMER DIVIDE AND LOWER COVERAGE OVER THE FAR PLAINS AS HIGHER
STABILITY REMAINS. GIVEN CAPE VALUES AND THE INCREASE SHEAR ALOFT
COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
AND DAMAGING WINDS. NOT MUCH HELP UPSTAIRS TODAY AS QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS INDICATE A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS.
STORMS SHOULD FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS WITH MOST STORMS ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN ALOFT ON SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE EASTERN CO PLAINS WILL HELP
MIX OUT THE POST FRONTAL STABLE AIRMASS FOR MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT CAPE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OUT THAT WAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS SUNDAY
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING UP FROM NEAR BAJA. LOOK FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG DOWN OVER SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EAST EARLY MONDAY THEN GET PICKED UP AND
BROUGHT NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE AS A LARGER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE PUT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS SEEING LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE UPPER
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...CHANCES WILL START DECREASING FROM THE
SOUTH BUT WILL STILL SEE SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND 10KFT.

PAST WEDNESDAY REMAINS AN UNCLEAR FORECAST...AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE PACNW UPPER LOW.
MODELS HAD BEEN SEEMING TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...UNTIL THE
00Z EC CAME IN PUSHING IT BACK FARTHER NOR TH. HOWEVER...EITHER
WAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT WEDNEDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

STRATUS DECK IS IS QUITE VARIABLE THIS AM RESULTING IN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. APPEARS LOWEST CEILINGS ARE OF COURSE RIGHT
OVER KDEN/KAPA ATTM WITH HIGHER MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST OF DENVER. DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE MUCH FOG ESPECIALLY
IF STRATUS DECK HOLDS TOGETHER. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY UNTIL AFTER 22-23Z WHEN INVERSIONS ERODE AND
AMPLE CAPE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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