Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 201457
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
857 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

CLEARING UNDERWAY AS ADVERTISED IN THE WAKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS
BROUGHT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FCST AREA LATE LAST NIGHT
AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE INTRODUCTION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG APRIL SUN SHOULD MANAGE TO PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ON THE PLAINS AND 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS ACROSS THE
NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A
DEVIATION FROM THIS WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY.


SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON
APR 20 2015

BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME WITH A GOOD
BACK EDGE AROUND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. SHOWERS HAD A HARD TIME
GETTING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME ARE SURVIVING NOW IN THE
HEART OF THIS WEAK WAVE. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF DENVER BY
MID MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. AFTER THAT WARMING ALOFT WILL
LIKELY CAP CONVECTION...THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT. STILL SOME CLOUDS COMING OVER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SHOWER THREAT
THOUGH...LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

MODELS KEEP SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO LATER TUESDAY INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT IS
WEAK...AND ALMOST NONEXISTENT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD
QG VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN IT GETS A BIT STRONGER INTO THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALL FOUR PERIODS...AND THUS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK AND ALL OVER THE PLACE CONCERNING DIRECTION.
FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY DRY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AN INCREASE
OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS LATE DAY...WITH DRYING AGAIN AND THE SAME
THING AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE PROGGED
BOTH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A THETA-E AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE
PERIODS. THE BEST CAPE IS OVER THE FOOTHILLS BOTH DAYS. THE LAPSE
RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP AS WELL BOTH AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS. THE
QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND
IMMEDIATE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME AGAIN FOR LATE DAY WEDNESDAY
...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERING ALL OF THE CWA...BUT STILL WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-20%S LATE DAY
TUESDAY...THEN 10-30%S LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE THUNDER
BOTH TIMES. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-6 C WARMER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1.5 C WARMER
THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA MUCH OF
THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SCENARIO HAS BECOME MORE STABLE IN TIMING
AND FROM MODEL TO MODEL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
MOISTURE... QPF...TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT. WILL
CERTAINLY NOT JUMP TO ANY CONCLUSIONS AS THIS TIME...HOWEVER THIS
TIME OF YEAR`S SUN IS PRETTY STRONG ALREADY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 853 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

SCATTERED 4000-6000 FT AGL CLOUDS DRIFTING SEWRD OVER THE DENVER
METRO AREA AT THIS TIME...SHOULD CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYBULB/DEWPOINT SPREADS STEADILY INCREASE WITH INFLUX OF DRIER
AIR OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND CHEYENNE RIDGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BACKING TO LIGHT
EASTERLY AROUND MIDDAY THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR LIGHT SPEEDS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BAKER



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