Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241634
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE FOG
FORMED THIS MORNING IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS ABOVE 45 DEGREES...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM EASTERN WELD COUNTY DOWN TO WASHINGTON COUNTY.
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND UPWARD QG MOTION MAXING OUT BY NOON...SHOULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START FIRING WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LESS CAPE IS AVAILABLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON
OUT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN RESULT
MORE IN JUST GUSTY WINDS HERE ALONG THE METRO AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND 12Z THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING. MODERATE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH DEEPEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL BY THIS EVENING. IN THE MOUNTAINS...OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR
PCPN NOT VERY HIGH WITH A MIX OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTN AND EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BY LATE TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS STABILIZES FM THE WEST WITH A
MOUNTAINS WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT...GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE ALL THATS LEFT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...FORECAST
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 400 J/KG AT DENVER WITH SOME HIGHER
CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG AT AKRON AND LIMON. AS A RESULT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING MAINLY AROUND LIMON. THIS AFTERNOON...BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. OVERALL
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER...BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO
EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...MAINLY GREATER
THE 7 C/KM UP TO 300 MB...WILL BE IN PLACE. SURFACE BASED CAPES
WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT EVEN
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AND
BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS 18Z SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERSISTENT RAIN TO THE FRONT RANGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOW LEVEL WILL START OFF
AROUND 9000 FEET AND THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRAVELING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT THEN INTO TEXAS MONDAY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY
FROM COLORADO...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP A WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT IT TO BE COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
THIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
LATE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...UNSURE IF IT
WILL GO CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 7 KTS DURING THE TRANSITION. THEN EXPECT
NORTHWEST/WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TSTMS OUT
OF THE TERMINALS IN THE UPCOMING TAFS...BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE
EAST AND SOUTH OF DENVER. A FEW CELLS COULD PUSH OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER AND BRING SHORTLIVED WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE TERMINALS. DOWNSLOPING PATTERN OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 35
KTS NEAR KBJC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


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