Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 210032
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1832 MDT Monday, April 20, 2015

This forecast is for Tuesday, April 21, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 53.7 F/12.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 919 ft/min (4.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16133 ft MSL (10826 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 65.0 F/18.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12684 ft MSL (7377 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 04/22.... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 16373 ft MSL (11066 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Wednesday 04/22....... Poor

Remarks... Upper ridge building over colorado tomorrow with decreasing winds
           through the day. Temperatures will be warming up.

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:13:37 / 19:42:33 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 28 min 56 sec (808 min 56 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:58:14 MDT... 62.17 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 04/21/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 9369 ft MSL (4062 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13067 ft MSL (7760 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14352 ft MSL (9046 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.3
K index......................... +15.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -57.0 -70.6   280   32   16   0.4   0.2      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -56.3 -69.3   280   38   19   0.7   0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -59.7 -75.5   310   40   20  -2.4  -1.3      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -60.1 -76.2   315   42   22   2.7   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -58.5 -73.3   320   42   22   2.7   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -56.9 -70.4   320   43   22   5.3   2.9      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -52.2 -62.0   325   44   23   7.7   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -47.0 -52.6   330   45   23   8.3   4.6   28.4  83.1     7.6      M    M
 29000  -44.5 -48.1   330   45   23   8.3   4.6   27.7  81.9     7.1      M    M
 28000  -42.0 -43.6   330   44   23   8.3   4.6   27.2  80.9     6.8      M    M
 27000  -39.5 -39.1   330   44   23   8.2   4.5   26.8  80.2     6.6      M    M
 26000  -37.1 -34.8   330   43   22   7.9   4.4   26.0  78.8     6.0      M    M
 25000  -34.7 -30.5   330   42   22   7.9   4.4   25.3  77.5     5.6      M    M
 24000  -32.3 -26.1   330   41   21   8.0   4.4   24.7  76.5     5.1      M    M
 23000  -30.0 -22.0   330   41   21   7.7   4.2   23.9  75.0     4.5      M    M
 22000  -27.7 -17.9   330   40   21   7.7   4.2   23.1  73.6     4.0      M    M
 21000  -25.4 -13.7   330   40   21   7.8   4.3   22.5  72.5     3.4      M    M
 20000  -23.1  -9.6   325   38   19   8.0   4.4   21.8  71.2     2.9      M    M
 19500  -21.9  -7.4   325   36   19   8.0   4.4   21.4  70.6     2.6      M    M
 19000  -20.7  -5.3   325   35   18   8.0   4.4   21.1  70.1     2.4      M    M
 18500  -19.5  -3.1   320   34   17   7.8   4.3   20.9  69.6     2.1      M    M
 18000  -18.4  -1.1   320   33   17   7.3   4.0   20.5  68.9     1.8      M    M
 17500  -17.3   0.9   320   32   16   7.4   4.1   20.1  68.1     1.4      M    M
 17000  -16.3   2.7   320   32   16   6.5   3.5   19.6  67.3     1.0      M    M
 16500  -15.3   4.5   320   33   17   6.4   3.5   19.0  66.2     0.5      M    M
 16000  -13.9   7.0   320   34   17   6.1   3.3   18.2  64.7    -0.3    898  4.6
 15500  -13.1   8.4   320   32   17   6.1   3.4   17.6  63.6    -0.9    856  4.4
 15000  -12.1  10.2   315   31   16   7.2   3.9   17.0  62.6    -1.4    813  4.1
 14500  -11.0  12.2   320   29   15   7.4   4.1   16.6  61.9    -1.8    766  3.9
 14000   -9.9  14.2   320   27   14   7.6   4.2   16.3  61.3    -2.2    719  3.7
 13500   -8.8  16.2   320   25   13   7.8   4.3   15.9  60.6    -2.5    670  3.4
 13000   -7.7  18.1   320   22   11   8.0   4.4   15.6  60.1    -2.9    621  3.2
 12500   -6.5  20.3   315   20   10   8.2   4.5   15.3  59.6    -3.1    570  2.9
 12000   -5.3  22.5   315   18    9   8.0   4.4   15.1  59.2    -3.4    520  2.6
 11500   -4.1  24.6   310   16    8   7.7   4.2   14.8  58.6    -3.8    471  2.4
 11000   -3.0  26.6   305   15    8   7.0   3.8   14.4  58.0    -4.1    422  2.1
 10500   -2.1  28.2   295   14    7   5.6   3.1   13.9  57.0    -4.7    381  1.9
 10250   -1.7  28.9   295   13    7   7.9   4.4   13.6  56.4    -5.0    360  1.8
 10000   -1.0  30.2   290   13    6   7.7   4.2   13.5  56.3    -5.1    333  1.7
  9750   -0.6  30.9   285   12    6   5.1   2.8   13.2  55.8    -5.4    313  1.6
  9500   -0.2  31.6   280   11    6   5.9   3.2   12.9  55.2    -5.8    294  1.5
  9250    0.2  32.4   275   11    6   5.5   3.0   12.6  54.6    -6.1    274  1.4
  9000    0.6  33.1   270   10    5   4.7   2.6   12.2  54.0    -6.5    255  1.3
  8750    0.9  33.6   265    9    5   4.7   2.6   11.8  53.2    -6.9    238  1.2
  8500    1.3  34.3   265    9    4   5.2   2.9   11.4  52.6    -7.2    219  1.1
  8250    1.7  35.1   260    8    4   5.2   2.9   11.1  52.0    -7.6    200  1.0
  8000    2.1  35.8   260    7    4   5.5   3.0   10.8  51.4    -7.9    180  0.9
  7750    2.5  36.5   260    6    3   5.1   2.8   10.4  50.8    -8.3    161  0.8
  7500    2.9  37.2   265    5    2   4.6   2.5   10.0  50.1    -8.7    143  0.7
  7250    3.2  37.8   270    3    2   5.4   3.0    9.7  49.4    -9.1    125  0.6
  7000    3.7  38.7   275    2    1   6.1   3.4    9.4  48.9    -9.4    104  0.5
  6750    4.1  39.4   000    0    0   5.5   3.0    9.1  48.3    -9.7     84  0.4
  6500    4.5  40.1   065    1    0   3.7   2.0    8.7  47.6   -10.1     65  0.3
  6250    4.6  40.3   085    1    0   1.6   0.9    8.1  46.6   -10.7     53  0.3
  6000    4.7  40.5   110    1    0   1.8   1.0    7.5  45.5   -11.4     43  0.2
  5750    4.8  40.6   135    1    0  -0.1  -0.1    6.9  44.4   -12.0     33  0.2
  5500    4.3  39.7   215    2    1 -13.2  -7.2    5.8  42.4   -13.3     40  0.2

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           04/21/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       04/21/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +11.4  LI... +275.8             | K index... +9.8  LI... +272.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... +23.7  CIN... -64.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.7 -71.9  285  33 17   0.4   0.2 | -58.3 -72.9  280  33 17   0.7   0.4
 45000 -57.0 -70.6  285  39 20   0.7   0.4 | -57.2 -71.0  280  40 21   1.1   0.6
 40000 -60.6 -77.1  310  39 20  -2.6  -1.4 | -60.6 -77.1  300  39 20  -2.5  -1.4
 38000 -60.8 -77.4  315  41 21   3.9   2.2 | -60.6 -77.1  305  40 21   4.3   2.4
 36000 -58.4 -73.1  310  42 21   3.9   2.2 | -58.1 -72.6  305  41 21   4.2   2.3
 34000 -56.0 -68.8  310  43 22   6.0   3.3 | -55.4 -67.7  310  43 22   6.3   3.5
 32000 -51.8 -61.2  310  41 21   7.1   3.9 | -50.7 -59.3  300  43 22   7.0   3.8
 30000 -46.9 -52.4  305  40 21   8.0   4.4 | -46.4 -51.5  295  43 22   7.7   4.2
 29000 -44.5 -48.1  305  39 20   8.0   4.4 | -44.1 -47.4  295  42 21   7.7   4.2
 28000 -42.1 -43.8  310  39 20   8.0   4.4 | -41.8 -43.2  295  41 21   7.7   4.2
 27000 -39.7 -39.5  310  38 20   8.0   4.4 | -39.5 -39.1  295  40 21   7.9   4.3
 26000 -37.2 -35.0  310  38 19   8.2   4.5 | -37.1 -34.8  295  39 20   8.1   4.4
 25000 -34.8 -30.6  315  37 19   8.2   4.5 | -34.6 -30.3  295  37 19   8.1   4.4
 24000 -32.3 -26.1  315  37 19   8.2   4.5 | -32.2 -26.0  295  36 19   8.1   4.4
 23000 -29.8 -21.6  315  37 19   8.4   4.6 | -29.8 -21.6  295  33 17   8.2   4.5
 22000 -27.3 -17.1  315  36 19   8.4   4.6 | -27.3 -17.1  295  30 16   8.2   4.5
 21000 -24.8 -12.6  315  36 19   8.2   4.5 | -24.9 -12.8  295  28 14   7.9   4.3
 20000 -22.4  -8.3  315  33 17   8.1   4.5 | -22.6  -8.7  300  27 14   7.8   4.3
 19500 -21.2  -6.2  310  31 16   8.1   4.5 | -21.4  -6.5  300  26 13   7.8   4.3
 19000 -20.0  -4.0  310  29 15   8.1   4.5 | -20.2  -4.4  305  26 13   7.8   4.3
 18500 -18.8  -1.8  310  27 14   7.9   4.4 | -19.1  -2.4  305  25 13   7.7   4.2
 18000 -17.6   0.3  310  26 13   7.6   4.2 | -17.9  -0.2  310  26 14   7.7   4.2
 17500 -16.5   2.3  310  25 13   7.7   4.2 | -16.8   1.8  310  27 14   7.7   4.2
 17000 -15.4   4.3  310  25 13   6.5   3.6 | -15.7   3.7  315  28 14   7.7   4.2
 16500 -14.5   5.9  315  27 14   6.6   3.6 | -14.0   6.8  310  28 15   7.7   4.2
 16000 -13.0   8.6  315  29 15   6.7   3.7 | -12.8   9.0  310  28 14   7.8   4.3
 15500 -12.0  10.4  315  29 15   6.7   3.7 | -11.7  10.9  310  27 14   7.8   4.3
 15000 -11.0  12.2  315  29 15   7.2   3.9 | -10.5  13.1  310  27 14   8.2   4.5
 14500 -10.0  14.0  310  27 14   7.2   3.9 |  -9.3  15.3  310  26 13   8.2   4.5
 14000  -8.9  16.0  310  26 13   7.7   4.2 |  -8.0  17.6  310  25 13   8.5   4.6
 13500  -7.7  18.1  310  24 13   7.9   4.3 |  -6.8  19.8  310  25 13   8.6   4.7
 13000  -6.6  20.1  310  23 12   7.9   4.3 |  -5.5  22.1  310  24 13   8.5   4.7
 12500  -5.4  22.3  310  21 11   7.8   4.3 |  -4.2  24.4  310  23 12   8.5   4.6
 12000  -4.3  24.3  310  19 10   8.1   4.5 |  -3.0  26.6  310  22 12   8.7   4.8
 11500  -3.0  26.6  310  17  9   8.4   4.6 |  -1.7  28.9  310  21 11   8.8   4.8
 11000  -1.8  28.8  310  16  8   7.8   4.3 |  -0.4  31.3  310  20 11   7.9   4.4
 10500  -0.7  30.7  305  14  7   6.5   3.6 |   0.7  33.3  310  19 10   6.5   3.6
 10250  -0.2  31.6  305  14  7  10.1   5.5 |   1.2  34.2  310  19 10  10.2   5.6
 10000   0.7  33.3  300  13  7  10.3   5.6 |   2.1  35.8  310  18  9  10.7   5.9
  9750   1.3  34.3  300  13  7   6.7   3.7 |   2.7  36.9  310  17  9   7.3   4.0
  9500   1.8  35.2  295  13  7   7.8   4.3 |   3.3  37.9  310  17  9   8.4   4.6
  9250   2.4  36.3  295  13  6   7.2   3.9 |   3.9  39.0  310  16  8   7.6   4.1
  9000   2.8  37.0  290  12  6   5.9   3.3 |   4.4  39.9  310  15  8   7.4   4.1
  8750   3.3  37.9  285  12  6   5.6   3.1 |   5.0  41.0  310  15  7   8.0   4.4
  8500   3.7  38.7  280  12  6   6.1   3.3 |   5.5  41.9  310  14  7   8.2   4.5
  8250   4.1  39.4  275  11  6   5.7   3.1 |   6.1  43.0  315  13  7   7.9   4.3
  8000   4.5  40.1  270  11  6   5.1   2.8 |   6.6  43.9  315  11  6   6.7   3.7
  7750   4.8  40.6  260  11  5   4.1   2.2 |   7.1  44.8  315   9  4   5.2   2.9
  7500   5.1  41.2  255  10  5   3.7   2.0 |   7.4  45.3  310   6  3   4.4   2.4
  7250   5.3  41.5  250  10  5   3.0   1.7 |   7.7  45.9  305   4  2   7.3   4.0
  7000   5.5  41.9  240   9  5   2.5   1.4 |   8.4  47.1  300   3  1   9.6   5.3
  6750   5.7  42.3  235   9  5   1.8   1.0 |   9.0  48.2  285   2  1   9.2   5.0
  6500   5.8  42.4  225   9  4   2.2   1.2 |   9.7  49.5  280   2  1  10.0   5.5
  6250   6.0  42.8  220   8  4   4.1   2.2 |  10.5  50.9  275   1  1  10.8   5.9
  6000   6.3  43.3  210   7  4   4.3   2.3 |  11.3  52.3  275   1  1  11.0   6.0
  5750   6.6  43.9  205   7  3   4.5   2.5 |  12.1  53.8  275   1  1  10.9   6.0
  5500   7.1  44.8  195   6  3  10.2   5.6 |  13.1  55.6  270   1  1  17.2   9.4

           04/21/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       04/21/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +14.8  LI... +270.5             | K index... +16.6  LI... +269.9
CAPE... +320.5  CIN... -34.1               | CAPE... +390.9  CIN... -24.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -58.6 -73.5  280  33 17   0.2   0.1 | -58.7 -73.7  285  34 17   0.0   0.0
 45000 -58.3 -72.9  285  43 22   0.5   0.3 | -58.6 -73.5  290  40 21   0.4   0.2
 40000 -61.3 -78.3  295  40 21  -2.1  -1.1 | -62.4 -80.3  295  40 20  -2.6  -1.4
 38000 -60.8 -77.4  300  40 21   5.0   2.8 | -61.8 -79.2  295  40 21   6.2   3.4
 36000 -57.9 -72.2  300  42 22   5.0   2.7 | -58.1 -72.6  295  41 21   6.1   3.4
 34000 -54.8 -66.6  305  44 23   6.6   3.6 | -53.8 -64.8  295  42 21   7.1   3.9
 32000 -50.1 -58.2  300  43 22   6.9   3.8 | -49.5 -57.1  295  41 21   7.1   3.9
 30000 -45.9 -50.6  295  42 21   7.6   4.2 | -45.2 -49.4  290  41 21   7.6   4.2
 29000 -43.6 -46.5  290  41 21   7.7   4.2 | -42.9 -45.2  290  41 21   7.7   4.2
 28000 -41.3 -42.3  290  41 21   7.7   4.2 | -40.6 -41.1  290  41 21   7.7   4.2
 27000 -39.0 -38.2  290  41 21   7.8   4.3 | -38.3 -36.9  290  40 21   7.9   4.3
 26000 -36.6 -33.9  290  40 20   8.0   4.4 | -35.9 -32.6  290  40 20   8.1   4.4
 25000 -34.2 -29.6  290  38 20   8.0   4.4 | -33.5 -28.3  290  39 20   8.1   4.4
 24000 -31.8 -25.2  290  37 19   8.0   4.4 | -31.0 -23.8  290  38 20   8.0   4.4
 23000 -29.4 -20.9  290  36 18   7.8   4.3 | -28.7 -19.7  290  36 19   7.9   4.3
 22000 -27.1 -16.8  290  35 18   7.8   4.3 | -26.3 -15.3  290  35 18   7.9   4.3
 21000 -24.8 -12.6  290  34 17   7.5   4.1 | -24.0 -11.2  290  33 17   7.3   4.0
 20000 -22.6  -8.7  290  33 17   7.4   4.0 | -21.9  -7.4  285  32 16   7.1   3.9
 19500 -21.5  -6.7  290  33 17   7.4   4.1 | -20.8  -5.4  285  31 16   7.1   3.9
 19000 -20.4  -4.7  290  32 17   7.4   4.1 | -19.7  -3.5  285  31 16   7.2   3.9
 18500 -19.3  -2.7  290  32 16   7.7   4.2 | -18.7  -1.7  285  30 16   7.8   4.3
 18000 -18.1  -0.6  290  31 16   8.1   4.4 | -17.4   0.7  285  30 15   8.5   4.7
 17500 -16.8   1.8  295  31 16   8.1   4.4 | -15.5   4.1  290  29 15   8.8   4.8
 17000 -14.9   5.2  295  31 16   9.0   5.0 | -14.2   6.4  290  29 15   8.9   4.9
 16500 -13.6   7.5  295  30 16   9.1   5.0 | -12.8   9.0  290  28 15   9.0   4.9
 16000 -12.2  10.0  295  30 15   9.5   5.2 | -11.5  11.3  290  27 14   9.1   5.0
 15500 -10.8  12.6  295  29 15   9.6   5.2 | -10.1  13.8  290  27 14   9.2   5.0
 15000  -9.4  15.1  295  28 15   9.0   5.0 |  -8.8  16.2  290  25 13   8.8   4.8
 14500  -8.0  17.6  295  28 14   9.1   5.0 |  -7.5  18.5  290  24 12   8.8   4.8
 14000  -6.7  19.9  295  27 14   9.3   5.1 |  -6.2  20.8  290  23 12   8.8   4.8
 13500  -5.3  22.5  295  26 13   9.4   5.2 |  -4.9  23.2  290  21 11   8.8   4.9
 13000  -3.9  25.0  295  25 13   9.2   5.0 |  -3.6  25.5  295  19 10   9.0   4.9
 12500  -2.6  27.3  295  24 12   9.1   5.0 |  -2.3  27.9  295  18  9   9.0   5.0
 12000  -1.3  29.7  295  23 12   8.9   4.9 |  -0.9  30.4  295  16  8   9.0   4.9
 11500   0.0  32.0  295  21 11   8.7   4.8 |   0.4  32.7  300  14  7   8.9   4.9
 11000   1.3  34.3  295  19 10   7.6   4.2 |   1.7  35.1  300  13  6   8.2   4.5
 10500   2.2  36.0  295  16  8   6.0   3.3 |   2.8  37.0  305  11  5   7.1   3.9
 10250   2.7  36.9  295  15  8   9.7   5.3 |   3.4  38.1  310  10  5   9.5   5.2
 10000   3.5  38.3  290  14  7  10.2   5.6 |   4.2  39.6  315   8  4  10.0   5.5
  9750   4.1  39.4  290  12  6   6.8   3.8 |   4.8  40.6  315   7  4   7.8   4.3
  9500   4.6  40.3  290  10  5   7.8   4.3 |   5.4  41.7  315   6  3   8.5   4.6
  9250   5.2  41.4  290   8  4   7.4   4.1 |   6.0  42.8  320   5  2   8.0   4.4
  9000   5.7  42.3  290   6  3   7.7   4.2 |   6.6  43.9  325   4  2   8.0   4.4
  8750   6.3  43.3  290   5  2   8.1   4.4 |   7.2  45.0  325   3  2   8.4   4.6
  8500   6.8  44.2  285   4  2   7.7   4.2 |   7.7  45.9  325   3  1   8.1   4.5
  8250   7.4  45.3  285   2  1   9.0   5.0 |   8.3  46.9  330   2  1   9.0   4.9
  8000   8.2  46.8  285   2  1  10.5   5.8 |   9.0  48.2  330   2  1   9.8   5.4
  7750   8.9  48.0  285   2  1   9.7   5.3 |   9.7  49.5  330   2  1   9.0   4.9
  7500   9.6  49.3  285   2  1   9.1   5.0 |  10.3  50.5  330   2  1   8.2   4.5
  7250  10.3  50.5  290   2  1   9.9   5.4 |  10.9  51.6  330   2  1   9.8   5.4
  7000  11.1  52.0  290   2  1  10.5   5.8 |  11.7  53.1  330   2  1  11.1   6.1
  6750  11.8  53.2  285   2  1   9.5   5.2 |  12.5  54.5  335   2  1   9.7   5.3
  6500  12.5  54.5  290   2  1   9.6   5.3 |  13.2  55.8  335   2  1   9.3   5.1
  6250  13.3  55.9  290   2  1  11.1   6.1 |  13.9  57.0  330   2  1  10.1   5.5
  6000  14.2  57.6  290   2  1  11.8   6.5 |  14.7  58.5  330   2  1  10.6   5.8
  5750  15.0  59.0  290   2  1  10.5   5.8 |  15.4  59.7  330   2  1   9.4   5.2
  5500  15.8  60.4  290   2  1  14.5   8.0 |  16.1  61.0  325   2  1   9.6   5.3
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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