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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000
FGUS75 KBOU 271851
ESFBOU
COC001-031-035-059-069-087-115-123-080000-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1148 AM MST WED JAN 27 2010

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...
PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR BASINS IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.

VALID FROM JANUARY 31 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2010

THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCE OF REACHING DIFFERENT
FLOOD LEVELS AT THE GAGES DURING THE VALID PERIOD.

                                         APPROXIMATE CHANCE OF
                 FLOOD LEVELS (FT)       REACHING FLOOD LEVELS
LOCATION         MINOR MODRT MAJOR       MINOR  MODRT  MAJOR
--------         ----- ----- -----       -----  -----  -----
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
 SOUTH PLATTE     7.0   9.0  11.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 DENVER          11.0  13.0  15.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 HENDERSON       10.0  11.0  13.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 KERSEY          10.0  11.5  12.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 WELDONA         10.0  11.0  13.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 BALZAC          10.0  11.0  13.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 JULESBURG       10.0  12.0  13.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%

PLUM CREEK
 SEDALIA          8.0   9.5  12.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%

BEAR CREEK
 MORRISON         9.0  10.0  11.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 SHERIDAN         8.0  10.0  11.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%

CLEAR CREEK
 GOLDEN          10.0  13.0  14.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 DERBY            9.0  10.5  11.5        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%

CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
 FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5   9.0  10.5        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 FORT COLLINS    12.0  13.5  19.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%
 GREELEY          9.0  10.0  11.0        < 10%  < 10%  < 10%


IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A STREAM COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 8 MONTHS /FEBRUARY-SEPTEMBER 2010/.

FOR EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT DENVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
11 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE STREAM WILL RISE
ABOVE 6.4 FEET IN THE NEXT 8 MONTHS.

LOCATION       FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------    ----   ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
 SOUTH PLATTE     7   3.6  3.7  3.8  3.9  4.0  4.1  4.3  5.0  5.6
 DENVER          11   4.7  5.1  5.2  5.3  5.7  5.9  6.2  6.4  6.9
 HENDERSON       10   6.1  6.6  6.7  6.9  7.0  7.2  7.4  7.8  8.3
 KERSEY          10   5.2  5.7  6.2  6.4  6.6  7.8  7.9  8.1  9.2
 WELDONA         10   3.8  4.7  5.0  5.3  5.6  6.7  6.9  7.4  8.1
 BALZAC          10   4.0  4.7  5.0  5.5  5.7  6.1  6.5  6.9  7.8
 JULESBURG       10   4.3  5.4  5.6  5.9  6.0  6.6  6.9  7.2  8.2

PLUM CREEK
 SEDALIA          8   4.9  5.0  5.0  5.0  5.0  5.1  5.2  5.3  5.7

BEAR CREEK
 MORRISON         9   6.8  6.8  6.9  6.9  7.1  7.1  7.2  7.3  7.4
 SHERIDAN         8   3.3  3.4  3.5  3.7  3.8  4.0  4.2  4.4  4.6

CLEAR CREEK
 GOLDEN          10   6.0  6.1  6.1  6.2  6.4  6.7  6.7  6.9  7.3
 DERBY            9   2.0  2.2  2.3  2.5  2.5  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.4

CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
 FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5 3.5  3.6  4.0  4.2  4.3  4.5  4.6  5.3  6.3
 FORT COLLINS    12   3.2  3.6  4.0  4.3  4.4  4.7  4.9  6.1  7.7
 GREELEY          9   2.5  2.8  3.2  3.5  3.6  3.8  4.5  6.0  8.1

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF
EACH MONTH. VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE WEATHER
AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS.

$$
TH