Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 270935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY NW. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SW MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GENERALLY INTO
SOUTHERN NM WITHIN A FEW HOURS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WC MTNS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. MTN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...FAVORING AREAS FROM NEAR KCQC TO KTCC. KLVS
AND KTCC WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAFFLING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH RAIN AND KLVS
WHILE KTCC SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  40  66  41 /  20  30  10   0
DULCE...........................  58  28  61  32 /  40  30  20   5
CUBA............................  56  33  59  35 /  40  30  10   5
GALLUP..........................  62  35  63  34 /  20  30  30   5
EL MORRO........................  55  31  56  33 /  50  50  30   5
GRANTS..........................  57  33  58  32 /  40  40  20   0
QUEMADO.........................  57  32  57  33 /  40  30  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  68  38  67  38 /  20  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  50  27  56  29 /  50  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  34  57  39 /  30  20  10   5
PECOS...........................  46  31  53  35 /  70  20  10   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  25  55  28 /  50  20  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  39  24  46  28 /  80  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  24  47  25 /  70  20   5   5
TAOS............................  50  29  56  31 /  40  20   5   0
MORA............................  41  29  50  32 /  80  20   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  57  34  62  38 /  20  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  50  34  57  38 /  40  20   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  31  61  36 /  30  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  38  62  41 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  40  63  43 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  36  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  41  64  43 /  30  20   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  37  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  59  41  63  43 /  30  20   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  60  39  64  41 /  20  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  34  58  39 /  70  20   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  55  32  60  33 /  40  20   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  28  59  29 /  60  20   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  46  31  56  35 /  70  20   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  34  56  36 /  70  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  36  57  38 /  40  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  32  53  37 /  60  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  31  50  33 /  90  20   5   0
RATON...........................  44  31  54  31 /  80  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  32  57  33 /  80  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  30  55  34 /  70  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  36  58  38 /  90  20   5   0
ROY.............................  44  33  57  37 /  80  20   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  47  39  62  40 /  80  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  46  37  62  39 /  70  20   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  37  63  39 /  90  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  46  36  61  39 /  60  20   5   0
PORTALES........................  47  37  62  40 /  60  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  37  62  40 /  60  20   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  40  65  41 /  30  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  35  57  38 /  50  20   5   0
ELK.............................  48  33  51  36 /  60  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$

33









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.