Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 020855
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ENSURE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WHICH COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS. DUE TO THE
MARGINALITY OF WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE
AIR MASS WILL ALSO STAY RATHER DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM
20 TO 30 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT
WAS ALREADY ISSUED YESTERDAY. EVEN THOUGH RH IS TECHNICALLY NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO REACH CRITERIA FOR MOST PLACES...THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS ALONE AND THE DRYNESS OF FUELS PROMPTS THE WARNING. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL WINDS AND RH.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RATHER CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
USED TO. MANY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
FRIDAY MORNING. STILL WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS MAINLY
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND HAVE
INCREASED HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES. EC AND GFS SHOWING A WARM
FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DECENT WARMING NOTED AT 925/850 MB.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

THE MODELS...EC...GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
SENDING OFF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MAIN
TROUGH THEN IS SHOWN TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS OUR
REGION. THUS...IT IS STILL LOOKING BETTER THAT WE WILL RECEIVE
SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS
LIKE OUR CWA WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S AFTER SUNDAY
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE EC GUIDANCE WAS COOLER
THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AS THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ267>273.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.