Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 051127
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
327 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED
WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR
FEATURES WITHIN A COUPLE MB. A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. SO WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
DATABASE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM
FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ALOFT...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE RIDGE WILL
ROTATE BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH 551 DAM CENTER OVER
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVING OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA AS THE CENTER
MERGES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. A 515 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE
EAST TO NORTH OF BARROW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
518 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 400
NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OVER
KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE EAST OVER CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL
ENTRENCH ITSELF NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. A VIGOROUS LITTLE
1020 MB LOW NORTH BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TODAY. RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL HELP IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE.
DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1030 MB
HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. A
1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
ON THE MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS...BUT THE GOES MVFR
PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 05/0715Z CLEARLY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF
STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO EAST AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST INTO
CANADIAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
20 MPH...BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS
SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT A BETTER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN
THE WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL
AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN ZONE 227. WITH THAT EXCEPTION WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST TODAY AS
A VIGOROUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE BRINGS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH IT. STILL
PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TAPPING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORMS...IF
THEY OCCUR WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH IT BEING DRY AT THE
SURFACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE THERMAL
TROUGH SETS UP...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE STRENGTHENS.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RANGE WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...PER NORMAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW
MUCH CONSENSUS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO CANADA AND A LOW DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN
FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH. MODELS NOW MAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WITH THE THERMAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ISSUE RED FLAG
WARNINGS SOMETIME TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
VIRGA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...REPORTED THAT THE ICE MOVED AT EAGLE TODAY BUT
STOPPED NEAR THE OLD VILLAGE OF EAGLE. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE
AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 04/2117Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE
YUKON RIVER REMAINS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA.
REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. RIVER WATCH
MISSION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT
YUKON AND EAGLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 15



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