Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 210704
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...LARGE SPIRALING SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MOISTURE BLOWING COLD AIR THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FREEZING LEVEL
HAVE STEADILY BEEN LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF
TO OCCASIONAL SPITS INTO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DEEPER
MOISTURE ALOFT HAS EXITED...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE VERY CHILLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS MN/WI...NEXT BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
DEFINED SFC TROUGH ARE SEEN ROTATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS IS THE NEXT AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAYBREAK
HOURS...WHILE THE UPPER/SFC LOWS DRAG THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH
AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO NRN MICHIGAN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AIDED BY
APRIL SUN ANGLE WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO
FIRE OFF NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MAYBE SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS SEEING BRIEF SNOW MIXING IN...AS WET BULBS CLIMB TO 1600 FEET
AT THE PEAK OF THE SHOWER COVERAGE. BETTER COVERAGE LIKELY TIED TO
THE FRONT WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE IN WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
THINGS WILL NOT GET MUCH BETTER HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DESPITE
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM DEPARTING "SUN".
MORE DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WRAP INTO THE
REGION...WHILE THE SFC TROUGH WALKS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUALLY COOL...TO WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE. WONDERFUL. ONGOING FORECAST OVER SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW SEEM OK....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NRN
LOWER. THERE JUST WONT BE STRONG FORCING...SO DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING
CRAZY...LIKE WAKING UP TO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...MILDEST IN DOWNSLOPING
REGIMES OF NE LOWER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: DEEP COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD TO START THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN ONLY ALLOWING A SLOW RETREAT TO THIS SYSTEM
HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. ATTENDANT DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW/MOISTURE/AND RATHER IMPRESSIVE LATE SEASON COLD WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWERS...BOTH OF THE LIQUID AND SNOW
VARIETY...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW LONG THIS SYSTEM INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER...WITH GROWING
HINTS THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PEEL OUT OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND ADDRESSING PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE.

DETAILS: UNFORTUNATELY...JUST MORE OF THE SAME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPEST AND COLD ANOMOLIES
SUPPORT SOME LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONTRIBUTION. SURFACE BASED
MELTING LAYER IS EXCEEDINGLY SHALLOW WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING EVEN
DURING "PEAK HEATING" (HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S) MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. WHAT MELTING LAYER THERE IS
WILL BE QUICKLY LOST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
FREEZING/STRONG SUN ANGLE/RAPID DISRUPTION TO ANY LAKE HELP WILL
DEFINITELY QUELL SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
SUPPOSE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BEGIN TO THIN DURING THE DAY. INHERITED POPS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT IN QUESTION WITH TRENDS STARTING TO SHOW THAT
SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTION TO WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AND MOISTURE
LOSS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW...JUST KEEPING SOME EVENING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MENTION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS
DEEPEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

PER TRENDS...SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITION HEADING
INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON SUCH JUST YET
HOWEVER...WITH BY THEN NORTHEAST CENTERED TROUGHING STILL CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WEAK WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD. JUST SIMPLY TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO DEVIATE FROM INHERITED DRY FORECAST. DEFINITELY
MORE SUPPORT FOR A SLOW MODERATING TREND AS COLD CORE ANOMOLIES
RETREAT NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO AVERAGE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS BY THEN
PUSHING THE UPPER 40S/MIDDLE 50S WILL LIKELY FEEL RATHER PLEASANT
AFTER THIS WEEKS WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

...AFTERNOON SHOWERS...

CIGS HAVE CLIMBED TO VFR AS DEEP MOISTURE HAS CROSSED NRN MICHIGAN.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE HOWEVER WILL DRAG A SFC TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FIRE OFF WITH PERIODIC PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED. BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW LOWER AIRPORTS. AS THIS
TROUGH DRIFTS BY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COLDER AND COLDER. EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. LOW SNOWFALL RATES OF COURSE...LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED...LIKELY ONLY A FEW TENTHS.

SW/WSW WINDS REMAINING RATHER BLUSTERY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE WEST THEN NW TONIGHT...AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTH OF MICHIGAN...SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND BIGGEST WAVES FROM THE LAKE HURON
SHORELINE TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. DID EXTEND THE ADVISORY
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF STURGEON POINT THROUGH
TODAY...AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND FURTHER INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
CHILLY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE WEEK.
WAVES MAY STAY CHOPPY ENOUGH ON LAKE MICHIGAN FOR
ADDITIONAL/EXTENDED ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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