Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 182337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING
DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ON AND
OFF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE REGION...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS MOVED
INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 412 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE ENDED UP WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND SOME WIND GUSTS
30-35KT WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR. THESE HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
REGION. STILL A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS LATE
AFTERNOON HEATING STILL EFFECT AT CREATING SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
KEEPING THINGS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW. LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING
THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A
DRY AND SEASONAL DAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TURNS
UNSETTLED THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A
VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A WARM
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1"
SUPPORTING MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH 0.75 TO 1+ INCHES OF RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AS A STRONG 925-850MB JET
OF 40-60KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THINKING GUSTS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS TOP OUT AROUND 40MPH.

LOOKING FOR LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S COOLEST IN THE EAST WITH
COOL UPSLOPE SE FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 PM EDT...

UNSETTLED PERIOD AHEAD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY/NIGHT.

AN OCCLUSION WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAIN LOW CENTER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A TRIPLE
POINT OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT. LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE
SEEING A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE
REGION. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE 50S TO EVEN A SPOT 60F. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED CUT-OFF
LOW WILL BE SETTING UP SHOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...POISED TO SEND MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT ITSELF SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWERS ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AS PIECES OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ROTATE
AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THE MOST ROBUST WAVE OF ENERGY IS HINTED AT
CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LARGER VALLEYS...WITH
SOME FLAKES POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT NIGHT...TO MOSTLY SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -1C TO -5C.
HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MOST.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE
FINALLY TRANSLATING EAST OF THE REGION AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HOWEVER THIS WOULD NOW PLACE THE REGION FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE ADDED
COMPONENT OF SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. AS WITH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIME OF DAY AND ELEVATION DEPENDENT.
TEMPERATURES ALSO QUITE SIMILAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND LOWS
THE 30S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 20S IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTH WINDS
ABATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SCT-BKN CEILINGS FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER.
HOWEVER LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE, INFERRED BY SHARP
CLEARING IN LATE- AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
REGION, WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND LEAD TO FURTHER CLEARING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE NORTHERLY GUSTS WILL ABATE IN SHORT
ORDER, NORTHERLY GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW OVER RHODE ISLAND
AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, GRADIENT SLACKENS RESULTING IN LIGHTER
NORTHERLIES (3-6 KTS).

VFR SKC CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. AS RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER THE REGION, NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MONDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. LEADING WARM FRONT WILL BRING FIRST FRONTAL
RAIN BAND INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM
SW- NE. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SECOND BAND OF RAIN MOVES IN MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...LOCONTO/MUCCILLI



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