Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE OF
TEXAS. NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW A 700MB TO 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FURTHER NORTH A 500MB TROUGH STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES ALIVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA HELPS USHER DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AS A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, LINGERING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) TONIGHT. THE LOWER TO
MID 40S(F) ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PATCHY FROST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE COLDEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR MASS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MODIFY MUCH GOING INTO TUESDAY, DECREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A LITTLE OVER THIS
AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. SO, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
MORE SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH NEAR I-70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE LEE TROUGHING, A RETURN TO SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOIST RETURN FLOW. BY
THE WEEKEND, SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH WEAK COLD FRONTS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS, LOW
DEWPOINTS AND COOL READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER
70S BY AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LEE
TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S AND LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BASED ON 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID DAY AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOTS RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  37  74  44  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  74  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  38  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  72  44  77 /  10   0   0   0
P28  42  72  46  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT



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