Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY HELP FUEL
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIGHTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AND NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE WILL BE A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND A WESTERLY JET SETTING UP
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH WINDS MAINLY
OVER OF THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM 4 TO 6 DEGREES BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PENETRATE PART WAY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. IN ADDITION...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FUELED BY LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS THAT DO OCCUR WILL VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL CHANGE WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT THE AIR MASS FURTHER
AND END ANY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAYS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DAMPENED THE STRONG WINDS PROJECTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA BOTH DAYS. IT WILL
LIKELY STILL BE WINDY BOTH DAYS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LOOKING LIKE
THEY WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE AREA ARE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THAT SAID...RAIN
CHANCES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN ZONES AND PERHAPS
THE BOOTHEEL OF NEW MEXICO WITH GENERALLY INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. EXPECTED RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z - 20/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PD. ISOLD -SHRA OVER
HIGHER MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. SKY CONDS WILL BE
SCT100-140 AFT 18Z FOR AREAS NORTH OF KLRU. NW WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AFT 18Z AT 8-14 KNOTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SOME BRIEF LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH PART WAY INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. VERY LITTLE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LOWER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           76  47  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  46  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  47  78  48  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  34  60  37  61 /  10  10  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  47  78  47  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             71  42  72  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  80  43  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  42  79  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      80  54  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               79  48  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  50  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  49  75  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  49  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            80  49  80  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  52  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  43  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   79  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                78  48  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  50  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  38  65  42  68 /  10  10   0   0   0
MESCALERO               63  38  65  40  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  39  65  41  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
WINSTON                 70  38  71  38  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  42  76  44  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  43  79  44  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            69  38  71  38  71 /  10  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  73  40  74  42  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  39  79  40  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  36  76  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 74  42  75  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  79  46  79  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  44  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  45  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  43  75  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





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