Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261843 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
143 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY. IT APPEARS THIS
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND NOT IMPACT OUR TAF SITES. FOR
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW CLOUDS RETURN TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL MENTION TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...LEAVING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL 15Z. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...CORRECTED...
MONITORING WHAT COULD BE A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THROUGH MID MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT. EML CAPPING/MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY BE A
FOREWARNING OF THINGS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP IS
FORECAST TO ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH MIDLAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ORIENTATION COULD RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERED PROFILE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER MIXES
OUT AND CAPPING DETERIORATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AN AREA EAST OF
DEL RIO TO SONORA WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED...BUT POTENTIALLY RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...DO THINK THE DECENT SHOT
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE HWY 57 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

SINCE HI RES MODELS SUCH AS TTU WRF AND HRRR ARE KEEPING CI WELL
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT INCREASE POPS ABOVE CHC
WORDING THROUGH 00Z. BUT AS SPC HAS INCLUDED THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE ENHANCED RISK...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL...PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE
ON TRACK WITH LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR A LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LINE OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MORE AS A STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT WITH LARGE
HAIL AS WELL.

TB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  85  59  72  51 /  70  30  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  83  58  72  49 /  70  30  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  84  59  73  50 /  60  30  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  83  56  70  49 /  70  30  30  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  60  76  51 /  10   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  83  57  70  49 /  70  30  30  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             63  85  59  74  49 /  40  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  60  72  50 /  70  30  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  82  61  72  50 /  60  50  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  85  60  73  51 /  50  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  84  62  74  51 /  40  30  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



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