Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042148
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
248 PM MST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD WANE TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS SINCE
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED NEAR LAS
VEGAS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE LOW PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...IT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AREAS ABOVE
8000 FEET COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN ALL SNOW DEPENDING ON
HOW LOW HEIGHTS FALL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO DO NOT THINK
MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS BROAD
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS 4-6KFT AGL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA THROUGH 15Z TUES THEN
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA. AREAS OF MVFR AND ISOLD IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PRECIP THROUGH 00Z WEDS. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
40KT POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. DRIER WEATHER TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAIR WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FASTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC..................TM
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DL



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