Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 280850
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
350 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/WEAK-BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO POSSIBLY EARLY THIS
EVENING (NOT EVERYBODY WOULD SEE THEM)...THIS SHOULD BE A RATHER
QUIET/PLEASANT/STRAIGHTFORWARD 24 HOURS AS MOST OF THE CWA IS
EXPECTED TO TOUCH THE 70-DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL
DAYS.

STARTING WITH THE HERE-AND-NOW AS OF 08Z/3AM...QUIET CONDITIONS
RULE THE LOCAL AREA...AS THE CWA SITES UNDER A SMALL-SCALE WEST-
EAST ORIENTED MID-UPPER RIDGE. THE AREA RESIDES IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA: 1) WE ARE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE SLOW-
MOVING SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW WHICH IS OVER NORTH TX...AND 2)
WE REMAIN SOUTH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND TRAILING
HUNDREDS OF MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM A PARENT LOW IN THE HUDSON
BAY REGION. MEANWHILE OFF TO THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS. CLOUD-WISE...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMATTERING OF THIN HIGH CIRRUS OVER PRIMARILY
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR...BUT WHEN LOOKING UP AT
THE NIGHT SKY THINGS ESSENTIALLY APPEAR CLEAR- MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT
TERRIBLY FAR OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SANDHILLS IS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A BATCH OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THESE ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA AREA
RANGE FROM NEAR-CALM TO GENERALLY NORTHERLY AT 5-10 MPH...ALTHOUGH
A FEW BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OF LATE. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...MOST OF THE CWA APPEARS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN
37-40 DEGREES...WHICH AS ANTICIPATED WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT WAS.

LOOKING FORWARD FORECAST-WISE...

TODAY (THROUGH 00Z/7PM): AS STATED AT THE TOP...THE MAIN FORECAST
"ISSUE" APPEARS TO BE A MODEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SPRINKLES/WEAK
VIRGA-DOMINATED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT HOPEFULLY MOST FOLKS REALIZE
THIS IS A PRETTY IFFY PRECIP MENTION TO BEGIN WITH AND SHOULD NOT
DISRUPT MANY OUTDOOR PLANS. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE THE GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD-MOVING...AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHOSE CENTRAL
AXIS BY 00Z SHOULD EXTEND ALONG A NORTHWEST KS-EAST-CENTRAL NEB
LINE (AND WELL NORTHEAST FROM THERE). WHILE THIS RATHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MIXING
UP TO AROUND 750 MILLIBARS PER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO POP SOME HIGH-BASED WEAK SHOWERS. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...THESE WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE MORE VIRGA THAN ACTUAL
RAIN...AND THUS FEEL OKAY MAINTAINING A SPRINKLE WORDING VERSUS A
FORMAL MEASURABLE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THIS MINOR RAIN RISK HAS ALMOST NO SUPPORT LOCALLY
IN THE DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS FROM MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS...BUT HIGHER RES MODELS SUCH AS THE NSSL 4KM WRF AND HRRR
DO IN FACT SUPPORT THE GOING SPRINKLE MENTION. HAVE STARTED THIS
MENTION WITHIN ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STEPPING THE CHANCE SOUTHEASTWARD TO INCLUDE
MAINLY THE REMAINDER OF THE NEB CWA THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. NO
MATTER...ANY SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN THAT DOES MATERIALIZE SHOULD BE
QUITE BRIEF AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. TURNING TO OTHER
ELEMENTS...CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY A BIT SHAKY ON SKY COVER
TODAY...BUT GENERALLY ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING
(MAINLY THIN HIGH CIRRUS)...BEFORE POTENTIALLY A BIT MORE SOLID
AXIS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS
POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GEARED TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY
MORNING/PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PROMOTE NORTHERLY BREEZES TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH VERY POSSIBLE...AND MAYBE BRIEFLY HIGHER UNDER ANY
POTENTIAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ASSUMING THAT SKY COVER REMAINS IN
CHECK...THE DEEP MIXING REGIME TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE A CONTINUED
GRADUAL WARM-UP. NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...AIMING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 70-72...WITH ONLY A FEW NORTHWEST COUNTIES MORE PRONE TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF 70.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z/7PM): OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW SPRINKLES/WEAK SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DRY CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO
POPS POST-MIDNIGHT. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE WELL-SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...LEAVING UNEVENTFUL
NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS PLACE LOCALLY...AS THE LARGE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE BEGINS EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN POSITIVELY-
TILTED FASHION. AT THE SURFACE...THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH TIME...CAUSING BREEZES TO GO
SOMEWHAT MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE POST-MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWING EVENING
NORTHERLY SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 MPH. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK FOR THE NIGHT IS SKY COVER...AS ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR...THERE ARE HINTS IN
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM THAT A DECENT COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
CENTERED AROUND 6-8 THOUSAND FEET COULD MATERIALIZE/LINGER...BUT
FEEL THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND HAVE SHYED AWAY FOR NOW. ASSUMING
THAT THE MOSTLY CLEAR LATE-NIGHT EXPECTATION COMES TO
FRUITION...FEEL THAT SEVERAL MODEL EXPECTATIONS OF LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TOO MILD (INCLUDING THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE).
AS A RESULT...HAVE NUDGED LOWS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...THUS AIMING MAINLY 39-43 DEGREES...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S FOCUSED IN THE USUAL
WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES SUCH AS DAWSON/VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL SEE MILD/WARM SPRING TEMPS ALONG WITH
VARYING CHANCES FOR TSTMS. PATTERN-WISE STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FM THE DESERT SW NORTH
TO SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THRU
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFIES LATE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO WORK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY IN SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF
A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE CONVECTION IN
THE EVENING AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...AND TIMING OF THIS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS AND INCLUDED SMALL POPS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS
CONVECTION COULD LINGER DURING THE DAY AS THE WAVE MOVES THRU.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR SETTLING IN WITH H85 TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE MID/UPPER
TEENS. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES OR NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL BRING CONTINUED CHCS FOR TSTMS
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY JUST LIMITED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF AND THEN POSSIBLY A BIT GREATER COVERAGE OF MID CLOUDS
DURING THE LATTER HALF. THERE IS EVEN AT OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER PASSING THROUGH MAINLY DURING THE 21Z-01Z
TIME FRAME...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE DOES NOT WARRANT FORMAL
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. ASSUMING THAT ANY POTENTIAL WEAK
SHOWERS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME DO NOT KICK UP
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
FEATURE SUSTAINED SPEEDS BELOW 12KT...FROM A PREVAILING NORTH
DIRECTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.