Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 030849
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
149 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN DROP SOUTHWARD
LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LAST DEBRIS FROM THE EASTERN
SIERRA THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE
FROM SATURDAY`S CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE SIERRA AND THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MORE ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A LOOK AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS SUGGESTED
THUNDER ALONG THE CREST AT ABOUT 1PM WITH THE CELLS ALONG THE
CREST AND DRIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, NOT A
BIG THUNDER DAY EXPECTED, BUT STILL NOTABLE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, ANOTHER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE DAY IS IN STORE WITH LOTS OF 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SHOULD SEE AN AFTERNOON
GUSTY WIND THROUGH THE WESTERN PASSES AS HAS OCCURRED THE PAST TWO
DAYS.

THE PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN FORECAST MODELS TRANSITION TO A SCENARIO HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
THEN DROPPING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
BOTH THE LATEST OPERATION RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
THE LOW CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SOME ACCUMULATING HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW IN THE SIERRA WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE THE LOW EJECTS TO THE EAST. BY SUNDAY, FORECAST
MODELS SHIFT THE LOW WELL TO THE EAST AND ANY PRECIPITATION
THREAT SHOULD END, EVEN OVER THE SIERRA. A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN
WILL OCCUR IN ADDITION WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA CREST FROM 21Z SUN UNTIL 03Z MON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-03       99:2004     52:1892     63:2013     38:1964
KFAT 05-04      100:2004     58:1930     64:2013     39:1950
KFAT 05-05       99:1990     57:1921     65:1989     36:1975

KBFL 05-03      102:1966     64:1950     80:1906     40:1938
KBFL 05-04      101:2004     59:1930     70:1982     39:1893
KBFL 05-05      100:1990     61:1932     69:1909     42:1930
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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