Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 250503
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 857 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. AS OF 02Z...ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WERE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN WARM
FRONT IS STILL IN SW MS AND NE LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY AND THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS NOW MAKING IT INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE STILL IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S BUT THERE ARE DEW POINTS TO THE SW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WITH DEEP LAYER SW FLOW AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING...THESE DEW
POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED NE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STABLE UNTIL THE INSTABILITY AND THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVE
IN. THIS ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS STILL LOOKING TO
BE THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
HIRES GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE STORMS BUT EXPECTING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO BE AFTER 06Z AT
THE EARLIEST WITH THE HRRR/NAM SHOWING IT CLOSER TO 10-12Z. DAMAGING
WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN...CONTINUE TO LOOK
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM.

DID NOT CHANGE THE POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN IS LIGHT...IT IS STILL WIDESPREAD. THE TEMPS WERE RUNNING A
LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO VARY MUCH
OVERNIGHT.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AS OF 06Z...ONLY RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BUT WILL CONTINUE VCTS BECAUSE THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOOKS TO BE
9-14Z WITH VRB WIND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND CHANGES IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS AND OVC
CIGS WITH SCATTERED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 16/17Z. THESE
WILL BE VERY SCATTERED SO CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO 4-5KFT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING CHANGES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CIGS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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