Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 040951
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
451 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AND MOVING
INLAND. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY THIS MORNING THAT FELL APART
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CWA. EXPANDED THE RAIN CHANCES EAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST
A WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE AROUND IT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM. GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE AREA
AND MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND NO MOISTURE
ENCROACHMENT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS RELAXING A BIT BY THIS TIME AND A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS WILL FINALLY BEGIN CREEPING UP.

BY SATURDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET A NUDGE EAST AS TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WHILE BETTER LAPSE RATES
WILL EXIST ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE MID
60S...FOR THE MOST PART THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM
LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STRONG. THE WEAKEST CAP
STRENGTH WILL EXIST IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS AND JUSTIFIES SOME
SLIGHT POPS.

BETTER FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY AND SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR A BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...ONCE AGAIN
BEST IN THE WEST.

WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES. THESE SHOULD BE LESSENING
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A SUMMERISH MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR
RETURNS./26/


&&

.AVIATION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INLAND AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE
WERE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT FELL APART BEFORE REACHING
HBG. WILL NOT ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST SINCE CHANCES ARE
SMALL BUT THERE COULD BE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING MUCH FOG FOR MEI/HBG SO FAR...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE NEXT
PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  59  82  59 /   8  11   7   5
MERIDIAN      82  58  83  57 /   4  10   6   7
VICKSBURG     83  61  83  60 /  12  11   8   6
HATTIESBURG   83  60  84  60 /  20  11   6   6
NATCHEZ       83  63  82  61 /  20  17   9   7
GREENVILLE    82  61  84  60 /   4   7   7   6
GREENWOOD     83  60  84  59 /   3   7   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/



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