Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 020221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS UPDATE...POPS WERE INCREASED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE HI-RES
HRRR...HINT AT A SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSHING
INTO OUR CWA FORCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST LOOK PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN AT ANY OF THE SITES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THE TREND OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL ADD VCTS FOR
JAN...MEI AND HBG FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO SRN
MS VALLEY. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE W/NW
DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO
THE E. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM DUE TO DECENT LAPSE RATES
BUT FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DUE TO SOME WEAK S/WV
LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY MORNING AS WE
CONTINUE TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO A ~1005MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
TO MID MS VALLEY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH NEAR
90KTS AT 500MB AND 130KTS AT 300MB. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE N THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT INCREASING WAA AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 20-25KTS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR/40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS REGION IS
CLOSER TO THE JET MAX AND BETTER FLOW ALOFT. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ~6-7
DEG. C WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL AID IN DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR GOING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH STORMS WEAKENING. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
GLH/GWO/GTR THAT MAY BRIEF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AFTER
07-08Z AND THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOST SITES THROUGH
16/17Z THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  83  66  83 /  17  25  10  49
MERIDIAN      61  81  63  82 /  17  21  14  33
VICKSBURG     64  83  67  82 /  17  27  11  54
HATTIESBURG   64  82  66  82 /  17  16   8  28
NATCHEZ       64  84  66  83 /  17  25  10  42
GREENVILLE    63  80  67  78 /  34  43  14  66
GREENWOOD     62  80  66  80 /  31  39  14  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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