Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 052118
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
418 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FEW OVERALL CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MEAN WRN CONUS TROF...WITH THE NW GULF COAST
REGION RESIDING UNDERNEATH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROFS OF VARYING SIZE AND SCOPE ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE MEAN TROF...BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CONSEQUENTIAL TO OUR AREA. DIURNAL INSTABILITY AMID THE CONTINUED
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO
LIFT OUT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY BE REPLACED AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE PAC NW DIGS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO PIVOT TO THE EAST
TWD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ERODE THE RIDGE
ENOUGH BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK TO ALLOW A CDFNT TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA AND BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH IT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...SLOWLY
SUBSIDING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. A
MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY
MAINLY DAYTIME SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  82  65  84 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  67  82  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  64  83  68  84 /  10  20  10  10
BPT  70  83  71  84 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



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