Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 020053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUNDING SHOWS WHERE THE CLOUDS WERE LOCATED THIS EVENING WITH A
LOWER BROKEN DECK BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET AND AN UPPER DECK OF
CLOUDS BETWEEN 16500 AND 19200 FEET. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
BETWEEN THESE CLOUD LAYER THOUGH. OVERALL...A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN DRAWN OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAS CLIMBED TO 1.22 INCHES. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE WERE FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN GENERALLY ROTATED AROUND
TO BLOWING FROM THE WEST BY 18000 FEET. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 89
KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 39500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 56 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE JUST NORTH OF BILOXI. THE BALLOON
ASCENDED FOR 103 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SOME CONNECTIVITY ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON SO RUNNING A BIT LATE. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER EASTERN U.S. MAINTAINING SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WHERE BULK
OF WEATHER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AS A VORTICITY IMPULSE WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BECOMING RECHARGED BY A SURGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO
DIVERGE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. DAYTIME
HEATING AND PERHAPS A BETTER MOISTURE FETCH THAN MODEL INDICATED
MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. AT
THIS TIME...INDICATING 50 PERCENT OR SO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
EVENING. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM IS
ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE EASTER
WEEKEND CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PLAINS FRONTAL ZONE ACTIVATES WHILE
HEADING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY...BRINGING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY. THAT FRONT CAN BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN
THAT IT COULD STALL OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR QUITE SOME TIME TO
POSE A HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT FROM ECHO TRAINING SOMEWHERE IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GULF TAF SITES AND INLAND SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE AT LEAST 4 KNOTS 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAMPER DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE CEILINGS BETWEEN 3 AND 5KFT OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AND POSSIBLY
VISIBILITY BR DOWN TO 3SM IN MIST AT ONLY MCB AND HUM. SOUTH FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL SITES AFTER 14Z THURSDAY. 18

MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY AT MODERATE LEVELS.
COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH GULF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POST-FRONTAL SATURDAY. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  82  65  83 /  10  20  10  40
BTR  65  84  66  84 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  67  81  67  81 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  68  82  68  82 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  66  77  68  77 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  66  78  65  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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