Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210536
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. THE MAIN
QUESTION OF THE FORECAST IS IF PRECIPITATION WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO AFFECT KHRO AND KBPK. AT THIS POINT...JUST MENTIONED IN A
TEMPO GROUP. WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH/SOME
MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA...AND A FEW OF
THESE MAY MAKE IT INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT
8 TO 14 MPH ON TUESDAY. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN...ALBEIT SMALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION. THERE
COULD LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
AN MCS SCENARIO SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE BELOW
AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF WARM UP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  51  71  51 /  20  20  40  40
CAMDEN AR         74  54  76  60 /  10  10  50  60
HARRISON AR       66  48  67  48 /  20  20  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  53  73  57 /  20  20  50  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  53  74  56 /  20  20  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     73  55  76  60 /  10  10  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      70  52  73  56 /  20  20  50  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  48  68  49 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        70  51  71  51 /  20  20  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     72  54  75  58 /  10  10  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  50  72  54 /  20  20  50  50
SEARCY AR         71  50  73  53 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      71  53  74  56 /  10  10  50  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




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