Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 052201
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
601 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY
THEN DRIFT NORTH AND LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
RIDGE WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SLACK GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. USUALLY THIS WOULD
SIGNAL STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE
SKY COVER FORECAST WILL BE CHALLENGING. DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS
FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NC AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS APPEAR PRIMARILY THIN AND I AM NOT EXPECTING
MUCH INHIBITION OF COOLING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MAIN
EFFECT WOULD BE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH ARE AGAIN POISED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S. AS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW MOS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL AGAIN
FOLLOW THIS TREND AND USE THE COOLEST MOS FOR LOWS WITH READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND AROUND 60 BEACHES. IF CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE EXTENSIVE AND/OR MORE OPAQUE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST THEN WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING MINIMUMS WITH THE
10 PM UPDATE. CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR GROUND
FOG OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER HYDROLAPSES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE EXTENSIVE THOUGH SO WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THIS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM TUE...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PINCHED
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE... LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS
AREA...WITH GENERAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. UPPER
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING UP A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
NORTH...MODELS HAVE A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TO SLIGHTLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUE TRENDS
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND UTILIZED A GFS/WPC BLEND FOR THE
WINDS...KEEPING PREVAILING WINDS NE/E GENERALLY 10-20 KTS ALONG THE
COAST DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF MODELS IS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND NAM. CONTINUED WITH THE INCREASE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS
COULD BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL
FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN NC COAST COULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW WILL REMAIN
IN THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO
CHANCES. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES AND
STILL HIGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SUMMERY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM TUESDAY...STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER PRODUCING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM NORTH FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES AND HYDROLAPSES
LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z.
WILD CARD IS THE EXTENT AND OPAQUENESS OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH COULD
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THUS FOG POTENTIAL. THINK BEST
COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO CONTINUE FORECAST LIGHT FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND MONITOR TRENDS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU THROUGH
SAT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM TUE...ATLANTIC HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUE...THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO
DEPEND ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST MODELS ARE BECOMING
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY BEING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL BLENDS TO FORECAST
WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO FCST E/NE
10-20KT THURSDAY...THEN E/SE FRI AND SAT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5
FEET NORTH...THU INTO FRI WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...CQD/BM
AVIATION...JME/CQD/BM
MARINE...CCG/JME/CQD/BM


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