Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 061128
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL VARY FROM THE S TO E.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY THRU FRI AFTERNOONS
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...TEMPS.

FORECAST PATTERN MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTENCY CONTINUING THRU FRI
NIGHT WITH...YES YOU GUESSED IT...CAROLINAS BASED SFC HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES USHERING IN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND CONTINUE
ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE. SO AGAIN...ANY WAY YOU SLICE
IT...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WX WITH MOCLR TO PTCLDY SKIES IS
EXPECTED TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT. EXCEPTIONS TO THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. INCREASING ATM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIALLY WILL BE USHERED IN PER ASSOCIATION WITH
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC CAROLINA
COASTLINE BY LATE FRI NIGHT...INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION DRY FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THAT A MORE BROAD CHANCE OF ISO SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND EVEN NOW INTO FRI ACROSS THIS AREA...AS
THE LATEST WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION IS LEANING TOWARD
MARGINALLY FAVORING THE 00Z EURO SOLUTION AT THIS POINT...WHICH
HINTS AT ISO SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SUPPORTED BY ITS SOUNDING
PROFILES AND INDICES ALSO...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE
CONVECTIVE SUPPORTIVE NAM AND GFS SOUNDING PROFILES AND INDICES
TOO.

AS FOR TEMPS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS AND SLY
LOW LEVEL ATM FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. HIGH TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S...LOWER 80S CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

31

LONG TERM (SAT THRU TUE)...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND SOME PLACES POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90.
UNFORTUNATELY...HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING...WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE STICKY 60S. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY...AND A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING IN FROM THE WEST...WE WILL KEEP
20 POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND.

THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A FRONT APPROACHES. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
MID TN TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
MIDWEEK. EXTENDED MODELS SHOW VERY WARM AIR COMING BACK QUICKLY
LATE NEXT WEEK.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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