Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 040237
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS.

MOSTLY CLEAR (BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND) SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH
A FULL MOON. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NYC...LOWER
50S IN THE SURROUNDING METRO AREAS...40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND NEAR
40 IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH SW
FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH...A BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS 80-85 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AND THE NORTH
SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...AND 70S ELSEWHERE...UPPER 60S AT THE SOUTH
FACING BEACHES.

UVI FOR MONDAY IS 8...WHICH IS VERY HIGH. (SAME SUN ANGLE AS
AUGUST 8TH)

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WELL INLAND NORTH/WEST OF NYC. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN NYC AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN WITH
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS. POP AT 50 PERCENT...BUT THINK WE WILL
GO HIGHER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. JET DYNAMICS ARE WEAK WITH THE
JET STREAK DISPLACED WELL NORTH IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LI GETS DOWN
TO ABOUT -1 AND THERE ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. WITH SFC
TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S...HAVE INCLUDED TSTMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...CONSISTENT WITH SPC OUTLOOK.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A CONVECTIVE
INDUCED VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
NAM/CMC/ECMWF AND QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST SREF...THINK THIS
FEATURE IS OVERDONE IN THE GFS AND HAVE LOWERED POP OVERNIGHT.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE COAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY LOWER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. ALSO...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST INTRODUCE A LOW CHC FOR SHRA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INLAND NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS MON WITH SPEEDS 10-20KT AFT 16Z.
AN OCLN GUST ABV 20KT POSSIBLE IN THE 18-01Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
KJFK AND KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...VFR WITH DECREASING SW WINDS.
.TUE-WED MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.
LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.WED AFTERNOON-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...THEN
THERE WILL BE TWO CHANCES FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. FIRST...SOUTHERLY COASTAL JET COULD REACH 25 KT
LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING ON THE OCEAN W OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET...THEN SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD PUSH OCEAN SEAS TO 5 FT MAINLY E OF
MORICHES INLET FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TUE...WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA EARLY TUE.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT TRANQUIL WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUED FIRE WX WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AS MIN RH FALLS TO 25-30 PERCENT AND S-SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE IN NE NJ...NYC NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK...ESPECIALLY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ELSEWHERE FINE FUELS ARE VERY
DRY...SO MARGINAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WITH A COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD
PRODUCE BASIN AVERAGES OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS DRY FROM WED-SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS WILL BEGIN ON MON
ONCE PARTS ARRIVE. UPDATED ESTIMATE FOR COMPLETION OF REPAIR IS
MON EVENING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>009.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...


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