Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 051132 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
432 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TODAY MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER OREGON ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THIS DAY AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 500MB TEMPS AT -28.
THE STRONGER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S. GRADIENTS STILL FAVOR SOME BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. 94

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OREGON UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THUNDER HAS BEEN
REMOVED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND A BUILDING NARROW...YET AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND.  WILL KEEP VERY
BORDERLINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...IN CASE THE LOW STALLS OUT ALLOWING FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  BY MID DAY SUNDAY ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  MOISTURE SEEMS LIMITED...SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NO VALLEY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.  GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUES VERY WARM AND DRY FOR THE PERIOD.
IT`S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THAT THE GFS BRINGS IN A STRONGER MORE
UNSTABLE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS 5-15 KTS...GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.  SCT 7-10 KFT CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCT-BKN 25KFT
CLOUD DECK AS WELL.  SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH WEST OF
KYKM...KDLS...KBDN...AND KRDM.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KYKM AND KDLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  39  62  39 /  10  10  20  20
ALW  67  41  64  41 /  10  10  20  20
PSC  70  42  68  42 /  10  10  20  20
YKM  66  38  65  40 /  20  20  30  20
HRI  68  41  67  40 /  10  10  20  20
ELN  61  37  62  38 /  20  30  30  30
RDM  61  32  57  32 /  10  10  20  30
LGD  61  36  57  37 /  10  10  30  20
GCD  63  32  57  34 /  10  10  20  30
DLS  66  41  66  42 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/89/89


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