Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KPQR 070352
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND
850 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO
LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WERE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MOVING S. A SHORWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES OVER NW
OREGON OREGON PROVIDED A TRIGGER TO THE STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT AS
THAT FEATURE MOVES S THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH. WILL HOWEVER HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW
OVER EASTERN OREGON. AN AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE E SLOPES OF THE WA
CASCADES THIS EVENING MAY YET SNEAK INTO THE S WA CASCADES IN
SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CONITNUES TO MOVE S LATE TONIGHT AND THU
AND RIDGING BUILDS IN...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM N TO S.

REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED. OTHERWISE...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND DIFFERENT VARIATIONS OF
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
/NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL KEEP WEATHER
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  A FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. A SEMI-
STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING ON SUNDAY...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER WEATHER WITH SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. -MCCOY
&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNDER COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE
CASCADES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 08Z THU. DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW CHANCES FOR A SHOWER IN THE AREA THROUGH 08Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CATEGORY CENTRAL OREGON COAST MARINE ZONES. NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE
WINDS EASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRES
GRADUALLY REBUILDS OVER THE NE PAC ON THU...WITH THERMAL LOW PRES
BUILDING OVER THE S OREGON COAST. EXPECT A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND
PATTERN THU AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK. MODELS SUGGEST LONG ENOUGH BREAKS BETWEEN NORTH WIND
EVENTS SO WILL NEED SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE
     OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.