Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 280922
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 AM PDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE WEST COAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND
THE SIERRA DRIVE AN EARLY SEASON ZEPHYR-LIKE FLOW.

AS RIDGE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THEN STALL OVER THE SRN CWA BY
EARLY THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A COOL
DOWN NORTH OF I-80...BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TEMPS COOL A BIT THURSDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND EVNG...BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT SEEM SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE FAR SRN CWA AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS HAVING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE AREA...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THURSDAY AFTN AND EVNG. SO WE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SRN CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTN AND EARLY THURSDAY EVNG. 20

.LONG TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAK UPPER LOW
OFF THE CA COAST WILL KEEP A THREAT OF THUNDER IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY IS
MORE MARGINAL, AND INCREASED WEST FLOW BY SATURDAY MAY PREVENT
CONVECTION IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR BOTH DAYS, WE WILL
KEEP POPS JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OFFSHORE LOW SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE KEPT A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER MOST
OF THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES STILL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND
MORE UNCERTAINTY FARTHER NORTH. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
PROJECTED TO SWING INLAND BY MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRUSHING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO
GENERATE A FEW CELLS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON MONDAY. FOR
THE RENO-TAHOE REGION, THE THREAT OF A FEW LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS, BUT IF THE PATTERN SETS UP AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST GFS, THESE AREAS MAY END UP MISSING OUT ON THE CONVECTION
BOTH DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
MAY DROP SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS/700 MB TEMPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND.
MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TYPICAL ZEPHYR EXPECTED WITH WEST BREEZES
20-25 KT FROM KRNO-KCXP NORTHWARD MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS TODAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS CAN EXPECT AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KT, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH WESTERN NV.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION AT
KTRK IS LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED EAST FLOW ON RIDGES. WHILE
BAND OF CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
WED MORNING (LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY) DESPITE THE RIDGE LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWEST. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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