Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 262056
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN STATES OF NEVADA
AND UTAH WILL BRING A DRYING NORTHEAST WIND AND A WARMING TREND
MONDAY...AND CONTINUED WARM THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK THE NIGHT
AND MORNING MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD RETURN...WITH
COOLING EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS DOTTED THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COUNTRYSIDE FROM THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WESTWARD AS THE AIRMASS
HEATS...BUT WITH EVENING STABILIZATION THE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE REGION...AND ALLOW SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO HEAT UP A BIT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT...AND WARMING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL WRF
AND BUFKIT DATA SHOW A STRONG DRYING TREND...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. THE
WINDS SHOULD BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE...TARGETING THE PERIOD FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY MONDAY...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MEMBERS...AND POSSIBLY A TREND TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FASTER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE WEST SHOULD PULL IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND SOME ASSOCIATED...MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. IN A NUTSHELL...COOLING WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... 262000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES 3000-
4000 FT MSL THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY.

MTS/DESERTS...COASTAL SLOPES LOCALLY OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS FOR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS NEAR THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 50 KTS
POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE VCTY KRAL AND KONT
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

100 PM PDT...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY MONDAY MORNING UNTIL
AROUND NOON ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE
COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES
COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON PDT MONDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     INLAND AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
     AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SMALL
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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