Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 271119
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
619 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Latest satellite imagery showing stratus across the Big Country
down into the Heartland. As a result, will go with IFR/MVFR
ceilings at the KABI and KBBD terminals through mid morning. The
low cloud clouds should break up or rise to low end VFR by early
afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon for the area, and
then MVFR ceilings returning tonight due to low level cold air
advection. A cold front will move south across West Central Texas
late this afternoon and evening. Expect north winds with gusts to
25 knots tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A strong upper level low will move east from eastern New Mexico into
Oklahoma during the next 24 hours. This means still some unsettled
weather for West Central Texas. For today, the combination of some
mid level ascent and low level moisture remaining will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northern half of
the area. Highs will range from in the lower 70s across the Big
Country to the lower 80s across the Heartland and Northwest Hill
Country.

For tonight, will continue the highest chances of rain across the
northern half of the area due to wrap around moisture associated
with the upper level low. Also, a cold front will move south across
West Central Texas, with winds becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

The upper low will move east into Arkansas by late Tuesday. Wrap
around moisture on the back side of this system will result in
mostly cloudy and cool conditions Tuesday, along with a slight
chance for light rain showers over the northern half of the
forecast area. Temperatures will be well below normal on Tuesday
with highs only reaching the lower to middle 60s, with north winds
10 to 20 mph. Drier air filters into the area Tuesday night, with
skies clearing and winds diminishing. This will allow temperatures
to drop into the lower and middle 40s areawide overnight. Wednesday
will be very pleasant with sunny skies, light winds and afternoon
highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Dry and warmer weather is on tap Thursday through next weekend as
ridging aloft dominates our weather pattern. Rain chances will
return to the area by early next week as the ridge aloft breaks
down and another upper level trough approaches from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  48  62  45  72 /  40  40  20   5   0
San Angelo  80  49  64  43  75 /  20  30  20   5   0
Junction  82  54  64  44  74 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




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