Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 280120
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
920 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE WAVES IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT...BUT NO MATTER
WHAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT THE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NATURE COAST WILL GENERALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN SOME WITH STORMS MOVING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WITHIN THIS AREA. THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SHOULD THEN APPROACH
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE ALREADY TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
4 FEET OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  83  72  84 /  60  80  80  80
FMY  75  89  75  86 /  30  50  70  80
GIF  70  83  69  83 /  50  80  80  70
SRQ  72  84  74  83 /  50  70  80  80
BKV  68  82  68  83 /  80  90  70  70
SPG  75  82  74  82 /  60  70  80  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



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