Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 181532
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS PENETRATED MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEB CAMS AND REPORTS REVEAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS AREA OF WET
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
RAISED POPS/QPF/SNOW AND LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA
TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS NOW CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY AS THE TROF PASSES. PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT.
NUTTER


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU NORTH CENTRAL MT
TODAY. EXPECT SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE
PRECIP MOVES THRU THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN LINE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BE A BIT BREEZY. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND JUST SOME PASSING
CLOUDS TONIGHT. BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015/
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS OF 3 AM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ALB/SASK BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL OREGON, WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR
HAVRE TO GREAT FALLS TO EAST OF MISSOULA. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST MODELS
INDICATED; EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ALSO KEPT ON WITH THEIR EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
WELL SO FAR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM`S MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
US/CAN BORDER, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL GLACIER COUNTY.
STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR REGION THIS
MORNING AS A SECOND PUSH OF MOISTURE COMES EAST OF THE DIVIDE, BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP AT ALL. MORE
NOTICEABLE RESULT WILL BE THE SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS
HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THAT
WOULD TYPICALLY LEAD TO A DAY OR TWO OF SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS
FOR THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MTN RANGES, LATEST
MODELS HAVE THINNED OUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WITH ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BUT LITTLE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP, SO HAVE
WENT WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUN/MON. WARANAUSKAS

MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THEN SOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW ON
THE EXACT TIMING/AREA/AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WILL FALL EACH DAY. THUS
HIT/MISS SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TREND FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  35  53  33 /  50  10  10  10
CTB  37  32  51  32 / 100  10  10  10
HLN  54  33  54  32 /  30  10  10  10
BZN  56  33  52  31 /  30  10  10  10
WEY  51  28  47  26 /  20  10  20  10
DLN  57  32  54  31 /  20  10  20  10
HVR  45  31  54  32 /  60   0  10   0
LWT  50  30  47  30 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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