Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 242051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT EXISTS THAT STATE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE STATE.
BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG AND COOLER
THAN THE CURRENT ONE AND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50"-1" UP IN THE WHITES. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE THE GROUND
IS RATHER WARM WITH MUCH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL MELTING. CURRENTLY
HAVE 2"-4" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE WHITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
AND MUCH COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS 8-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXISTS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP MONDAY WITH
WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITES EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THIS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 5-8 KFT AGL
PRIMARILY NW OF KFHU-KCLT LINE WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/TS THROUGH
25/03Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 12-
20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 25/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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