Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 180031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Apr 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2015

            Apr 18     Apr 19     Apr 20
00-03UT        4          3          3
03-06UT        3          2          3
06-09UT        3          2          2
09-12UT        3          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          3
18-21UT        3          2          3
21-00UT        3          3          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2015

              Apr 18  Apr 19  Apr 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2015

              Apr 18        Apr 19        Apr 20
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts through all three
days of the forecast period.


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