Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 030858
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN
CANADA LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES IN ZONAL FLOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL BUILD EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE IN THE
VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...BUT BEGIN TO SLOW/STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MENTIONED AREA. DESPITE RELATIVE-HUMIDITY
VALUES BEING NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE WINDS /AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS/ COUPLED
WITH DRY FUELS WILL ACT TO OFFSET THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
YIELDING ELEVATED-TO-LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AT THIS TIME...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF
OVERLAP BETWEEN CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST WINDS
PRECLUDES CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER DELINEATION.

..MARSH.. 05/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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