Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 011933
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
333 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...SPRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...
WITH A RISK FOR SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-020900-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
333 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (490).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.21 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 29-34 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-020900-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
333 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PERIODS OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.23 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47...EXCEPT 30-35 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 19 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

$$

MIZ020-025>027-020900-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
333 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 28 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.25 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 29-34 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 50-55 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

$$

MIZ031>033-020900-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
333 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
                    PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.27 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46...EXCEPT 34-39 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-020900-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
333 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.24 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SMITH



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