Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 260700
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

PER A 06Z OBSERVATION FM SHIP C6VG8 AT 34.0N 76.3W WITH 270/35 KT
AND AN EARLIER 0246Z ASCAT-B PASS...THE DVLPG SFC LOW NOW E OF CP
HATTERAS HAS GALE FORCE ASCD WINDS OVER ITS IMMED S AND SE
QUADRANTS. PER THE NEW 00Z MDLS THO BY THE START OF THE TODAY FCST
PERIOD THIS LOW SHULD MOV FAR ENUF E THAT ITS ASCD GALES WL BE E
OF THE NT2 WTRS. OTHERWISE THRU THE SHORT THE 00Z MDLS PRESENT NO
MAJOR FCST PROBLEMS. SINCE ITS SPRTD BY THE 00Z NAM/GEFS MEAN
PREFER THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION ANOTHER WEAKER DVLPG SFC LOW RACING E
NR 35N ACRS THE NT2 WTRS LATER TODAY...THEN PASSING E OF THE WTRS
TONITE WITH MAX ASCD WINDS GNRLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THEN LATER
MON INTO TUE NITE...THO THE 00Z MDLS DIFFER SMWHT IN RGRDS TO
ANOTHER DVLPG SFC LOW DUMBBELLING S JUST E OF THE NT1 WTRS AND NE
NT2 WTRS...THEY FCST A SMLR STRENGTHENING NLY GRADIENT TO DVLP
THRUT MUCH OF THE OFSHR WTRS. SINCE ITS SPRTD BY THE OTHER GLOBAL
MDLS...BELIEVE THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS GRADIENT LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE. THEREFORE FOR TODAY THRU TUE NITE WL POPULATE WITH
THE 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS WHICH WL RESULT IN GALES ACRS THE OUTER
NRN/CNTRL NT2 TUE/TUE NITE SMLR TO THE PREV FCST. SO OVERALL NO
MAJOR CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS THRU TUE NITE.

THEN FURTHER OUT IN THE LONG RANGE...BY LATE WED INTO THU
NITE...VS ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS THE 00Z GFS NOW FCSTS A MR
AMPLIFIED UPR LVL PTRN WITH A CLOSED UPR LOW DIGGING SSEWD TWDS
THE MID ATLC COAST LATE THU/THU NITE. AS A RESULT THE 00Z GFS NOW
FCSTS A SIGLY STRONGER ASCD DVLPG SFC LOW TRACKING FURTHER N UP
THE SE COAST WED NITE...THEN NE ACRS THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS THU INTO
THU NITE. OVERALL THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SPRTS THIS MR NRN 00Z GFS
TRACK...THO BY THU/THU NITE INDICATES THAT THE GFS TRACK COULD BE
SLIGHTLY TOO FAR N AND ITS FCST LOW MAY BE TOO DEEP. WL DISREGARD
THE 00Z UKMET SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND TOO
SUPPRESSED. THE 00Z GEM TRACK IS SMLR TO THE 00Z GFS TIMING-WISE
BUT LOOKS TOO SUPPRESSED TO THE S. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF FCSTS A SMLR
SOLUTION AS THE 00Z GFS WED NITE WITH ITS SFC LOW TRACKING NE OFF
THE SE COAST...BUT THEN FCSTS A SMWHT SLOWER INTENSIFYG SFC LOW
TRACKING FURTHER S OF THE 00Z GFS TRACK THU/THU NITE. SINCE THE
00Z ECMWF HAS BEEN MR CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS MR IN
LINE WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH ITS BL WINDS ON WED
THRU THU NITE. SO SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS PREVLY FAVORED FOR THIS
SYSTEM WL NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD PSBL
GALE WRNGS FOR THE NT2 WTRS.

.SEAS...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE TWO MDLS RMNG GNRLY IN
THE 1-3 FT RANGE...WL POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z
WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM FOR TODAY THRU WED. THEN SINCE THE
00Z ECMWF WL BCM FAVORED WL TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH ALL 00Z
ECMWF WAM FCST SEAS WED NITE INTO THU NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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