Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 180117
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
916 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...VALID 03Z SAT APR 18 2015 - 00Z SUN APR 19 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNW ALI 25 SSW HDO 25 NNE HDO 10 NW AUS 25 S PSN 25 NW POE
35 SSE ESF 15 S MCB 20 SSW HBG 35 NW MOB 20 NNE BFM 15 NW JKA
25 NW KVOA 25 E KMDJ 25 WSW KEIR KEHC 20 NW KBBF 35 NNW ALI.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNW CXO 35 SW JAS 20 NW LCH 15 NE KCMB 25 SSW KVBS BYY VCT
25 WNW VCT 25 SW 3T5 15 W 11R 10 NNW CXO.


...SRN/ERN TEXAS INTO SRN LOUISIANA...

03Z UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ACRS THIS AREA EXTENDING
SLIGHT RISK AREA A LITTLE SOUTH OVER SRN TX WHERE FRONTAL BNDRY
HAS SETTLED SLIGHT SWD THANKS TO OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH.  ALSO TRIMMED MDT AREA WEST OF THE WELL DEFINED MESO LOW
EMBDD WITHING MCS PUSHING EWD ACRS THE UPR TX COAST REGION   WHILE
SFC DATA SHOWS E/W FRONTAL BNDRY JUST INLAND ALONG THE UPR TX
COAST INTO SRN LA...BUOY AND SHIP DATA SHOWS THE REMAINS OF WEAK
OUTFLOW BNDRY SOUTH OF THE COAST...WHICH SEPARATES THE MORE
UNSTABLE/RICH MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS JUST ONSHORE.   IT WOULD APPEAR THE MESO LOW WOULD TEND TO
TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN CORE
TRACKING ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE WHILE MDT RAIN BAND
WITH EMBDD ISOLD HEAVIER CELLS OCCURRING FARTHER N.   WITH FRONTAL
BNDRY REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST ACRS WRN TX AND ADDITIONAL S/WV
ENERGY NOTED STILL COMING OUT OF NRN MEX...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CNVTV
ACTIVITY TO DVLP ACRS S TX OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT..THOUGH WITH
GRADUAL VEERING OF 85H FLOW TO THE SW...THE DEEPER MSTR SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD LA/SRN MS BY LATE SAT.  IN THE MEAN
TIME..CELL MERGERS/TRAINING AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MCS COULD
PROVIDE SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER 1-2
HOURS...AND TOTAL NEW RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
LOCALLY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS VERY
LOW GIVEN THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.

SULLIVAN/BURKE
$$




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