Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 210100
SWODY1
SPC AC 210058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK TO
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM SRN NY TO NRN NC SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE MAINTAINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE OVER THE MIDWEST AMPLIFYING ON APPROACH TO THE NRN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONSISTENTLY
PROGGED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. 00Z IAD RAOB SAMPLED THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OF AREA
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
MLCAPE ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG. OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING DUE TO WIDESPREAD WEAK BUOYANCY AND NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH WEAKNESSES IN HODOGRAPHS ARE
PERVASIVE IN 00Z RAOBS FROM 2-5 KM AGL...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS FROM MAINLY VA TO PA WITH
THE MAIN RISK BEING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.

..GRAMS.. 04/21/2015



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