Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 030102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030101
NEZ000-030230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030101Z - 030230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A 1-2 HR RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AS CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS AFTER
SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAD BEEN REPORTED WITHIN
A PAIR OF SPLITTING CELLS OVER COLFAX COUNTY. CONVECTION THAT WAS
INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE SYNOPTICALLY-EVIDENT SURFACE TROUGH /OVER
CNTRL NEB/ HAS INCREASED FARTHER E ALONG A COUPLE OF CONFLUENCE
ZONES IDENTIFIABLE IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MODIFIED 00Z OAX RAOB FOR THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN E-CNTRL NEB SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG IS COINCIDENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. GIVEN
THE STEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND MLCIN
INCREASES /ESPECIALLY WITH ERN EXTENT/...TSTM INTENSITY WILL WANE.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 05/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41209824 42079849 42369831 42479745 42469691 42169648
            41789624 41339617 40899637 40809682 40819730 40979783
            41209824




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