Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...THE
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1015 MB LOCATED OVER THE NW
BAHAMAS. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS OF 1200 UTC WAS NEAR 27N79W.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
03N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N30W TO
02N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W AND 19W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN
19W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN FL AND
THE BAHAMAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVER MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF. NORTHWESTERLY STABLE FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
GENERALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE KEYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN FL AND THE BAHAMAS
HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA. DIFFLUENCE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N
TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF 10N OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA
AND PACIFIC WATERS. DRY AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH
AN ONGOING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND MUDSLIDES OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER HAITI OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER EASTERN FL AND THE
BAHAMAS AND SUPPORTS A 1015 LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N79W. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N81W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 30N76W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N
TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FL EAST COAST. A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N54W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N24W TO 23N35W TO 23N53W. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE BAHAMAS
AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTHERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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