Issued by NWS
000 ACUS03 KWNS 230726 SWODY3 SPC AC 230725 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...SYNOPSIS... LEAD UPR WAVE THAT WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE GRTLKS REGION AS ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE MID-MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SUB-TROPICAL BRANCH WILL CARRY A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD FL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC...INITIAL CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THE WEAKENING GRTLKS DISTURBANCE WILL BECOME REINFORCED BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BY A STRONGER FRONT. THIS NEW CP AIR MASS WILL REACH THE UPR OH/TN VLYS AND CNTRL GULF CSTL REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN OLD FRONT WILL WAVE BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO CNTRL FL AS A WAVE MIGRATES EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BASIN. THIS LOW WILL TEND TO REDEVELOP OFF THE ERN FL CST BY EARLY THURSDAY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PD...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL JETLET. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE ENE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO PENINSULAR FL DURING THE LATE AFTN/NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY 70S DEW POINTS...WILL ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST CNTRL FL DURING THE LATE AFTN. LOW/MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT BEST...BUT GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LVL FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD ORGANIZED STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE GULF FRONTAL WAVE ENDS UP STRONGER THAN FCST. ..RACY.. 11/23/2009
