Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 040233
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
833 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED WITH A FEW
LINGERING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...MODELS SHOW A WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS COLORADO
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS TOUGH TO PICK OUT THE WAVE ON
SATELLITE BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE STATE. WILL
KEEP 30-60 POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR THIS.

STILL ON TRACK FOR A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY MONDAY. ONE THING TO
MONITOR MONDAY IS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE TOO STABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MODELS CANNOT AGREE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DYING THIS EVENING THEN
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING BEFORE DAWN TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE PLAINS...LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS WERE AS HIGH AS 100 PERCENT ON THE GFS.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH HIGH POPS THIS
EVENING ALONG URBAN CORRIDOR...THEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WILL BE A MOIST NIGHT...AND LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE A MINIMUM IN THE
MORNING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...WITH SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION...ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS......THEN EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER
DIVIDE IN THE AFTERNOON AND STARTING TO SPREAD TO THE PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT...MONDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY
WITH WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MODELS SHOW WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
...THE UPPER LOW IS RIGHT OVER THE CWA. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE EASTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WEAK MORE NORMAL TYPE PATTERNS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP
AND WIDESPREAD MOISTURE FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THERE IS SOME DRYING. THERE IS SOME CAPE PROGGED
MONDAY EVENING BUT THE VALUES ARE LOW AND COVERAGE IS MOSTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA. THERE IS SOME CAPE BOTH LATE DAY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING OVER 1000 J/KG. THERE IS MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FAR ALL THE CWA. FOR DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE
INDICATED A COOL...WET PERIOD AND THAT CONSISTENCY CONTINUES.
WILL GO WITH 40-70% POPS MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE SIMILAR TO MONDAY`S.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER COLORADO. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE...BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS THE FIRST HALF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 833 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z. THEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH
CEILINGS FALLING TO 1000 FEET OR SLIGHTLY LOWER. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...BUT REMAIN UNDER 5000 FEET.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT MAY 3 2015

THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED SMALL HAIL AND
A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
OF AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES MAY BE POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT LIGHTER
RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PLAINS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING LATE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER



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