Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010209
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
809 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH THE DENVER AREA AND CONTINUES TO
MARCH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWING
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 700MB. IN ADDITION TO THE
UPSLOPE...MOISTURE HAS INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR
THIS. AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

HAVE SEEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES SO
FAR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL UP IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AT KCYS
RIGHT NOW ARE MORE RELATED TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW THAN THE MAIN
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING WILL COME TO AN END AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITHOUT ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...DO NOT
EXPECT PARTICULARLY LOW CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.

MOISTURE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
STRONGER VALUES OF CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE WEAK IN GENERAL...BUT WITH
SOME SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST
FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT IT IS FLATTENING
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
...THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WITH AN UPPER LOW PROGGED
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS
BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED FOR THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...NORMAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK WINDS ON SATURDAY. NORMAL PATTERNS AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE ON SUNDAY. FOR
MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BIT MORE FOR LATE
DAY SATURDAY...WITH LATE DAY SUNDAY TO HAVE THE MOST. THERE IS
LIMITED CAPE AROUND FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS. THE CAPE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...THEN A BIT LESS LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINT PROGS SHOW 40S F FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MID 30S TO MID
40S F LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN BACK TO 40S F FOR SUNDAY. LAPSE
RATES ON THE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A STABLE LAYER OVER THE PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN STEEPER PROFILES BOTH LATE DAY SATURDAY AND
LATE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR LATE DAY SATURDAY...
THEN A BIT MORE AGAIN FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH MAINLY
20-40% POPS FOR THE LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING PERIODS....MAYBE A BIT
HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR TEMPERATURES...
SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-4 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S. SUNDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 1-4 C COOLER THAN SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS PROGGED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THEN THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATER DAYS LOOK PRETTY WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE DENVER AREA WITH GUSTY NNELY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WL REMAIN NNELY THIS EVENING WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING...MORE SO OVERNIGHT. SOME VRB WINDS
FM BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND DENVER THIS EVENING. THE AMS WILL STABILIZE AFTER
06Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z...WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS IF FOG DEVELOPS BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
06Z...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 06Z-
12Z. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 18Z. MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON
...WITH ILS CIGS 050-060 DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z.

&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER



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