Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 222053
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER PALMER DIVIDE. 88D SHOWING
DECENT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM ELBERT AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH AROUND WOODROW. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS ALSO MOVED OFF
FOOTHILLS AND NOW GETTING READY TO PUSH THROUGH DENVER AREA. THIS
FEATURE MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS HAS IT COLLIDES WITH THE
FEATURE TO THE EAST. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT DEWPOINTS STILL ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO CAPE
VALUES STILL ONLY UPWARDS OF 800J/KG. STORM PRODUCTION WILL BE
UNDER SEVERE LIMITS. SHOWERS/STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

FOR THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH
WEAK UPWARDS ASCENT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SURFACE TROF
STILL OVER EASTERN PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER FAR PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS FLOW SO DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. RESULTANT SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 1000-1500J/KG SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THETA E RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LAID ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVERHEAD. THIS
COMBINED WITH CAPES OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING...DECREASING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO LIMON MAY SEE A FEW
SEVERE STRENGTH STORMS EARLY EVENING.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CO/KS BORDER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL PASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM....EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AND MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT THEN
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS BETWEEN THE
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM. OVERALL...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT LEAST FOR WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

STRONGER STORMS STILL LOOK TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MOUNTAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE STORMS
MAY KICK FURTHER ACTIVITY OVER THE TERMINALS WITH MAINLY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED A POP30 AT
KDEN. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT BACK DRAINAGE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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