Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 310251 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
851 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS TO UPGRADE
NORTHERN WYOMING ZONES TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TOMORROW. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE RELEASED THIS AFTERNOON IS
TRACKING ALONG NICELY. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO
WHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES AT 1PM THIS AFTERNOON CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
INTO THE MID 20S AND LOW 30S THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING.

GFS SHOWING A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT TUESDAY WITH 700MB WINS
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
400MBS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE
AND LOW 70S IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN 30 MPH WINDS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. DID INCLUDE FWZ
302 AND 306 INTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND WILL BE ISSUING THIS
AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT HAS ACCELERATED FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKING TO MOVE INTO
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AT 12Z AND THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z. GOING TO BE WINDY...BUT WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES...DO THINK FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
THAT IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WED NIGHT AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON THURS. THE BEST QG ASCENT AND
UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. KEPT POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER FROM THURS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING...WHICH THEN TAPER OFF
TO 20-30 PERCENT ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER. COULD BE LOOKING
AT ADVISORY AMOUNTS (3-5 INCHES) ALONG INTERSTATE 80. IF THE
UPPER LVL SYSTEM WERE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH OVER FUTURE
RUNS...THEN WE WOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA. LLVL TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SNOW WOULD END BY LATE FRI
MORNING. RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST
COAST. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
REMAINING BELOW BREEZY LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS 20G35KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR RAWLINS...LARAMIE AND
CHEYENNE. ON THIS PACKAGE WE DID NOT FORECAST WINDS THAT HIGH OVER
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR SIDNEY, ALLIANCE, SCOTTSBLUFF
OR CHADRON...BUT SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MAY BRING THOSE UP HIGHER AS THERE IS THE REAL POSSIBILITY THAT WE
COULD MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
FROM LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ADJUSTING FOR KNOWN BIASES FOR
TOMORROW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR THE MID-EVENING UPDATE WE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A
FIRE WEATHER WARNING FOR SOME OF OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES IN
WYOMING WHERE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ON SEEING GUSTY WINDS
TO NEAR 35 MPH AND RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
WE KEPT THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING FOR THE AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AREAS MAY VERY
WELL GET UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ON THE MORNING PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA OFF THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND LATEST
ANALYSIS...SO STAY TUNED IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ310.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ301-302-
     306.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JG
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...JG



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