Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 160446
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING. WITH REPORTS OF 5-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN
LARAMIE...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH AS WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION TURNS TO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW IN COLORADO SPINS OFF ANOTHER STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. GUIDANCE SHOWING QPFS WELL OVER AN
INCH BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WENT AHEAD WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND THE SNOWY RANGE. UPDATES SENT
OUT EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TRICKY FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH MAIN DIFFICULTIES BEING SNOW
LEVELS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND AT WHAT TIMES THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER CURRENTLY
WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE NEB PANHANDLE
FROM COLORADO AS WELL WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN THIS
ACTIVITY. EXPECT ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AHEAD
OF AN IMPULSE RIDING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THIS
EVENING THEN THERE SHOULD BE SOME LULL IN THE PCPN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE IMPULSE WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO THE
4 CORNERS AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WX ADVY AS IS AS THAT
AREA SHOULD STILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE ACROSS COLORADO WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIKELY
ROTATING NORTH AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR THEN AND COULD GET
SOME DECENT SNOWS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. 700MB TEMPS A BIT WARM
HOWEVER...ABOUT -2C...AND WARM GROUND MAY HINDER ACCUMULATIONS
SOME. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL HILITES AT THIS TIME AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT NEWER RUNS. PCPN STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MORE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH AS THE
IMPULSE CONTINUES TO RIDE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SNOW LEVELS ALSO
RISING AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS SOME.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED LOW
TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL ENERGY ROTATING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. FAIRLY COOL TOO WITH GFS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS
FAILING TO CLIMB ABOVE 0 DEG C. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/
A KICKER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z SUN. THIS PUSHES THE
OTHER SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTH. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ENOUGH H7-H3 MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SUN. WOULD PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ON SUN...BUT THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM THE NE STATE
LINE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE PRIOR TO FROPA. MAINTAINED LOWER END
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO IT IS HARD TO FORECAST DRY. NOTHING
MAJOR THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW. PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND A WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN EVENT FOR THE PANHANDLE AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COOL TO MILD
AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE DISTRICTS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR
SNOW BRINGING WETTING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ103-105>107-110-114>118.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ101-
     103>106-109-110-115>117.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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