Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 022328
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE
WEAK SIDE WITH ONE STRONGER STORM NEAR PINE BLUFFS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE. COULD SEE ONE
OR TWO MORE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT WITH
INCREASING CIRRUS BLOW OFF AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL WANE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF BY MID
EVENING BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER LATER INTO THE NIGHT.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD OVER A GREATER EXTENT AND WILL SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
MAINLY LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY.
COULD BE A SOGGY DAY INTO THE PLAINS WITH STRATIFORM RAIN IN THE
MORNING. MAIN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE BUT ANY BREAKS IN LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE PLAINS
WOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK DESTABILIZATION...LEADING TO A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD OF A
DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALL WEEK. INITIAL VORT EJECTING FROM PARENT SHORTWAVE OVR
NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE CWA. ITS CURRENT
TRAJECTORY SUGGESTS THAT WRN NE PANHANDLE SITES BE IN THE BEST
POSITION TO SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. CLOUD-COVER SHOULD BE
PRETTY THICK OTHERWISE...WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE DEPTH SHALLOW
AND WEAK. THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO NR THE CO/NE/KS TRIPLE
POINT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... SETTING THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF WK CONVECTION. THAT SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SWIFTLY WEDNESDAY
NT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE WEAK VORTS LIFTING
NORTH ONCE AGAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY. HARD TO TIME THE
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THOSE THIS FAR OUT...BUT STILL NEED TO
KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING. WRN US LONGWAVE TROUGH INCHES
CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS FOR FRI/SAT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT. DEPENDING ON TIMING THAT
THIS OCCURS...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OUT
THAT DAY. OTHERWISE...SEVERE CONCERNS WILL BE MITIGATED BY THICKER
CLOUD-COVER AND RELATIVELY COOL PBL CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN UPPER 50S AND 60S OVR LOWER
ELEVATIONS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
03Z SUN. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BENEATH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CORES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
COVERAGE AROUND 10-15K FEET AGL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK. COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VARY
FROM DAY TO DAY AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WHICH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML


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